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Herman Miller Inc. Message Board

  • ivybanks1 ivybanks1 Sep 23, 2005 3:50 PM Flag

    I'll make it simple

    any appreciation LT holders of MLHR saw came
    from 1995 till the end of 98. From 99 until
    present, you've gained absolutely nothing but
    are nearly back to 98 levels. Unless this trend
    breaks, yes, I would think that history reason
    enough for a downgrade.I'm not saying the stock
    can't be traded profitably, and buying on the
    plunge prior to earnings was a good idea, but
    to hold.

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    • Certainly seems like the inflation cycle is
      ramping up. Air Products, I stock which I own,
      announced the other day that increases of up to
      15% on many of its products can be expected.
      Also, trucking companies have been warning, and
      most trading at near 52 week lows, they will
      begin to pass increased cost on. Dell has
      already eliminated many shipping perks on its
      products. Thats inflation.

    • Nice try, but you made it too simple! Let's look at the 5 year history....

      MLHR in 2000: 30 MLHR today: 30
      Dow in 2000: 11,000 Dow today: 10,500
      NASDAQ in 2000: 4000 NASDAQ today: 2000
      S&P in 2000: 1400 S&P today: 1200

      There are a whole bunch of unprofitable investments since 1999, thus your argument needs that perspective for any consideration (c'mon, you're smart 'nuf to know that, ain't ya?). The shocks to the market since 2000 have rocked most every stock. You used P&G for comparison; how convenient! Maybe 5% of stocks have performed as well as P&G, so if that's the yardstick, you can disparage just about every company on Earth.

      MLHR has consistently met or exceeded their guidance over the past 3 years. That's the facts, and very few companies can say that. Investors trust MLHR management because they have been proven through tough times. Sounds like a stock to buy and hold to me.

      Can't handle that? Then you better stick to soap and toilet paper. ;)

      • 1 Reply to bakerstheman
      • Comparing to the averages is a suckers game for
        the benefit of mutual fund investors that don't
        care to do their own dd. Even my only fund,
        DSM, has outperformed the averages in the past
        5 years, and thats simply in muni bonds. It's
        not very hard to buy stocks that consistantly
        grow in value. Yes, soap and toilet paper for
        one, generic pharma, agricultural commodities
        and the list goes on.
        MLHR was a dotcom success story in the 90's and
        suffered the same downturn. The company has
        done a great job, but thats just to attempt to
        grow as tall as it once was, and likely no
        I could have used HNI as an example, though I
        no longer own stock in it. It also performed a
        smidge better than MLHR in the 2 years I owned
        it. Of course the hearth division didn't hurt
        to have during the housing boom.
        If your a balanced fund, and you've got to be
        in the sector, one could argue for MLHR as the
        pickings are pretty slim in the group, but why
        an individual would by and hold is beyond me.

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