Clearwire investors in denial after all these years... of downward spiraling fortunes/debts
CLWR investors have been hanging onto hopes that Ergen/DISH, Verizon, or Softbank would step in fully or increase their offers despite the stock having traded sideways over the past ~ five months. The options have narrowed with the last best hopes hinging on legal actions that historically seldom pan out to yield much, if anything,for common stock investors, or for Son/Softbank to increase the offer for Sprint and Clearwire, which has looked increasingly unlikely to be above $3.50, only a marginal improvement in the recent price at best.
It makes me wonder why all the concern for what falls into the normal range of a stock's price movement? Is 30c-40c, roughly a 10% difference worth all this hubbub?
DISH's boisterous offer and issues raised to acquire Sprint looks unlikely to pan out imo. The harder Ergen tries to line up financing and denounce Softbank, the weaker they look. The big kahoona entrance by Carlos Slim/American Movil looks like just what its been, a rumor. Financing DISh has lined up looks underwhelming. Arguments appear more aimed at denouncing Softbank's recognized strengths than presenting DISH's. It just doesn't appear to add up to the 'superior offer' that's loudly been claimed.
DISH goes down on the deal.. but does away with heightened Wall Street, potential partners, and competitor's awareness.
Wow, that post got several thumbs down.. from CLWR stockzombies!
The price obviously went above the $3.50 mentioned in the post. However, it was written in the context a) that I had a buy recommendation still in place on the stock that I shifted to a hold/take profit at $4.40 and to a sell/take-profits yesterday. That buy recommendation was put in place when CLWR went below $2.60 several months ago .. and went to a strong buy when the stock had moved down below $1... back to just a buy as it rebounded higher. b) The longer term/bigger picture context has been that Clearwire has been a failed business plan: it IPO'd and then shot up on speculation to about 30 on a business plan to sell service to about 24 million subscribers by 2013. The plan was for half of those about 13 million to have been direct subs. It does not take a calculator to know that did not happen or that 13 mil times retail direct revenue would net to several times the same number (roughly 5 times) 12 mil times wholesale revenue (~$11/month). I keep forgetting... these are details stockzombies do not want to see posted. "Thumbs down.. we don't Like You!.. neener, neener, neener.. we'll take our ball to the other side of the playground and play by our rules!"
Bump. I've been here since the ridiculous 3.40 rebid. It is obvious what the prize is to Dish and SB. I'm not sure what TR gets out of these ramblings, maybe out of loneliness, but for heaven sake it doesn't take a novel to get the point across.
SB wants global domination and sees value in S and CLWR. Dish wants a seat at CLWR and will pay top dollar to have a voice. It's laughable to sell your shares until one side cracks.
OK, I missed by a penny. However, the storyline holds true: DISH/Ergen are losing the arguments about security, superior offers, and the CLWR stock price is right within the range I forecast 5-six months ago. Also, FCC-DOJ approvals look almost certain, and the roll up of Clearwire will happen regardless of the load noises coming out of DISH.