I've charted the subscriber info from DBSDISH.com and the numbers are interesting. Dish's market share is increasing at a steady rate from approx. 10% 5/1/97 to approx. 18% now. That would be good in an industry that isn't growing but when you combine Dish's market penetration with a 40% industry growth rate over the past year you have feel real good about today's valuation.
If Dish maintains it's current market share (remember it's actually growing nicely - 8% increase over the past 12 months) and if the industry continues to grow 40% annually, Dish will have approximately 1.7 million subs in 24 months and 2.4 million subs in 24 months.
If Dish continues to increase its market share at the same rate as the past 12 months (8%) AND the industry continues to grow 40%, dish will have 2.5 million subs in 12 months and 4.6 million in 24 months. This would still give Dish only 34% of the market.
With Dish's lower cost and more channel options, I believe we'll see 2 million subs in the next 9 months.
Didn't Paul Allen just pay a couple of billion for a cable company in the Southwest with 2 million subs?