It's been flying on a prayer since the start and while the longer it remains aloft the better it's chances are, it's rough sailing ahead. At first packaged (1 year) programming was sold with the units, money that was spent before it was collected, and since then, promos on top of promos. During the first quarter of 1998 most dealers were unable to get equipment, all systems as well as standalone receivers were back ordered for some time. Some dealers waited as long as three months for their orders to be filled. It was said to have been a supply and demand problem. There are still promotions on top of promotions right now. Would you be giving your equipment away if you could not supply it fast enough to meet demand? I don't think so. Hughes' pockets are much deeper, they could afford to give their equipment away and probably would if they thought there was something to worry about. Something is not right.
The prospects have improved significantly and the much of the long term risk has been wrung out of this stock since it last touched 19....however, a bad launch in the short term and/or a 10% market correction could get you close to it...but I wouldnt hold my breath....my money says that 30 is a higher probability than 19 from here.... and I just put 20% down on a house from trading profits I made on this stock.