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Entercom Communications Corp. Message Board

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  • suxbuts suxbuts May 14, 2009 10:34 AM Flag

    Should Have...

    I don't invest, I trade. I don't care who the co is or what they do, who runs it, or what their prospects are. I don't do research or due diligence, just trade: Long in a up trend, short in a down trend. just 3/4 letter ticker symbols to me. A short at $3 last week would be very profitable today. that's all I need to know. If you're long at a dollar, and failed to take profits at $3 last week, you're an idiot.

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    • I think you may be an idiot if you believe pure trend investing in a volatile market will work, but good luck. You'll need it.

      As for me, I am a pragmatist. I sold at prices from $2.70-$2.90. I'll take a 170%+ return in two months. But it wasn't based on a blind trading strategy, but rather an initial thesis that these guys will generate sufficient operating profit and cash flow in 2009 to avoid bank covenants and to pay down debt, leading to significant appreciation of the equity when/if the business stabilizes. EBITDA and cash flow will decline this year, but I was willing to bet that they'd stabilize at a level that produces strong equity returns. I thought the fact that insiders were scooping up shares even after the quarter ended lent even more credibility to a decent quarter. But given the leverage, the equity value can quickly go to zero or a multiple of today's value depending on how they execute. Q1 was weaker than I had expected, and my thesis was partially broken, so I took risk off the table. Now I'm on sidelines until Q2 results. After that we'll see.

 
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