I don't know. I'd say that's a reasonable target. But a lot of it has to do with how much you expect ad revenues to come back, and how much you expect an industry (radio) to come back in favor. There's a lot of variability in that (especially the latter). Personally, I think the Street is going to "pile into" these stocks, as the revenues start coming back, and the Street sees that radio is FAR FROM dead....and is really a great cash machine. If you believe, as I do, that by June of 2010, the Street is going to be CONVINCED that ETM is earnings $1.50 for that year, I don't know why it wouldn't sell for, say, 6-8x earnings at that point, which would be a target of anywhere from $9-12.
So I think $10 is actually the right number for a 6-9 month target here. Possibly somewhat conservative, since ETM seems to have the "big mo" now. (I'm actually guessing $10-15 by June 2010.)
Easily much higher. They survived the great recession profitably and reduced debt to boot - clearly ETM's risk was way overblown. With cash flow growing back to $3.50/share (as in 2008) ETM has a long way to go before it gets to a fair long-term valuation.