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  • deepvalueboy deepvalueboy Sep 16, 2010 8:58 PM Flag

    Very Positive ETM Article out today...

    what's the basis of your base case mid single digit and upside case high single digit growth projections? Can you cite a source (Kagan or some other third party) or further explain your thinking?

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    • No source. My own assumption that the huge decline in revenues for this industry, was overdone, relative to its usefulness to advertisers, and "twisted" perceptions of long term decline for radio that put it on par with newspapers and are overexaggerated.

      The basis for my scenario is 3-4% GDP growth in 2011, and a return of traditional advertisers that allows more of the 25% or so decline in ad revenues to come back. I also think that owners are so scared of losing control, owing to all of the debt, that they will be more aggressive on pricing discipline for ads, on the way up...and will have the strength of the market going in the right direction to do so. Let's face it: The outside analysts were WRONG about the comeback. (They pretty much missed it.) Those of us, like me, that bought this stock aggressively at $1 and change, because we had faith in the future cash flows, and a comeback in those cash flows, knew better than the industry analysts. Could I be wrong this time, and be overestimating the revenue comeback. Sure I could. But that's what makes a market.

      Housing and autos coming back more are going to be a major factor in the revenue growth picture for radio.

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