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  • insidehelp insidehelp Dec 18, 1997 4:37 PM Flag

    orcl just like another NOVL

    Ye of litte faith (or actually, little knowledge). What you see happening now is just year-end window dressing. The market makers that I have spoken to say that year-end window dressing by the institutional crowd, combined with those individuals trying to offset gains incurred this year on other investments, will force Oracle to remain in the 22 range until year-end. Watch for the stock to rebound with force in mid-January.

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    • My own view favoring a January rebound is in line more with insidehelp's: yearend window dressing by the institutions -- the large players who caused the one day price dip after the earnings report -- is responsible for much of the current price level problem I think.

      They will come back in quickly in January, once their yearends are filed safely and they are free to use hunches again -- they always do this. Hunches, for a careful portfolio manager, go in the direction of "undervalued companies" -- the Buffett approach, among others -- and Oracle certainly is in that category.

      Asia is out there as a concern, of course, and there are other things not least of which is Oracle's own "core business" / earnings problem. So I am looking for a partial but still significant January ORCL px recovery.

    • I totally agree, all those money and fund managers that loved Oracle at 33 will be drooling in January at 22. Personally, I bought at $23 and do not have any qualms whatsoever that it will come back and strongly.

    • Oracle stock will surely rebound because it�s a good product. But to say it�s going to rebound
      by mid-January (by how much?) is more of a an opinionated guess based on what you have
      gathered from �market makers�. Nobody has ever yet predicted the direction of the stock market.
      The �Bearish� have been taunting the coming of the bear market years ago just because we have
      been in a bull market for so long. But look , we are still in the bull market except that we get
      some jitters occasionally like we have now.

      I just get the idea that you maybe thinking that Oracle may go back to its high 40�s by mid-January.
      In a micro level, Oracle may not rebound significantly as you may have thought of by that time. Oracle
      is a global company and she�s hurt by the failing economies of Asia. Predicting a significant
      rebound next month is like saying the Asian economies will be back to where they were before
      Oracle�s stock price at 40�s. What I am saying is that, there is more to than just making a short
      term prediction as yours. Oracle remains to be depress for as long as the Asian economies are

      • 1 Reply to rich_96
      • I think too many people are banking on the January effect to increase the value of their holdings.

        But it might very well not happen this time. I think the problem is not just Asia, but in the overall arena of earnings expectations. More and more companies are giving warnings, and others are actually reporting healthy drops.

        We've learned that the so-called analysts cannot really be believed. Current issue of Smart Money has excellent article on
        how and why these analysts screw up. If they do their job too good and tell it like they see it, the company they follow ices
        them out. That's a real problem, since it is the company itself the analysts have to rely on for most of their info and
        prognoses. And if you check this out, you'll see that the buy recommendations far outweigh the sells. It's scary to see how sloppy even
        the best analysts are getting.

        We investors have to learn not to have overly emotional attachments to our stocks. I don't want to be chicken little, I don't think the sky is falling, but we are often too quick to discount bad news and keep searching for the silver linings. The fact that the market has always bounced back is not necessarily predictive.

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