no much many poor people got hit. thye dont' buy insurance. besides all their bets are hedged..really don't you think they have to figure that they have to apy for deaths at somepoint? this is not NFL point spread. any drop is a buying drop only thing is optiosn very top heavy on the Canadian side so a big pop in the next month might not happen they trade this on the Canadian side liek bandits.
OK - So good old trust me Don Guloien thinks the impact will be $150 million. Note he limited it to the earthquake.
What about reserves for variable annuity guarantees when the market drops by 20%?
What about extra mortality/morbidity from radiation sickness? How are you going to underwrite for casual radiation exposure? It will be a permanent raising of the mortality table.
What about anti-selection from those exposed? Better raise those prices quickly.
What about expense overruns from lack of sales until Japan gets going again?
What about the ratings downgrade that will hit Japanese debt?
What abut the increased taxes that will happen in Japan to pay for recovery?
What about the lowering of interest rates in the US/Canada as Japanese Government Bond investors seek safety elsewhere?
For those who invest in the US, the US dollar will increase versus the Canadian dollar due to lower commodity and oil prices. This will bring the US stock price down more than the Canadian price.
There are no positive catalysts for this stock price through the summer until earnings release in May at the minimum. For the record, I pulled the plug on my investment this morning. The stock needs to find its new trading range before I get back in.
Think about this as the news comes out over the next month.
and MFC is knee-deep in a lot of payoffs. Now Manucrap has a lot of reserves now, and with policy losses and asset devaluations, etc, that's about all they have. I cancelled one of my John Hancock policies and went with a different company. My agent, whom I have known since 1985 said a lot of his people have left John Hancock because of Manulife. He said John Hancock's being bought by Manucrap has virtually destroyed John Hancock.