The biggest challenge of course is to value the drug pipeline. We don't claim to be experts. However, we feel confident in saying that the pipeline at the very least has a small positive option value. Given the massive uncertainty, it's probably impossible to accurately value these things. But we know that the target markets are fairly large, and that if approved, these drugs would probably sell well--easily several hundred million dollars each a year. As a low-ball guess, we value this call option at $50 million. It doesn't take heroic assumptions to get to this number. Thus, when combined with the cash, we think the company is very conservatively worth somewhere around $240 million, or roughly $10 per share. If the results later this year are good, that value may increase dramatically. Game Plan We purchased MYRX at about $4.50 per share, versus a current price of $4.85. We wouldn't be surprised if this story works out relatively quickly, as the stock converges on cash value. If this happens, we'll probably trim our holdings back. The key event in the next year is the Azixa results in fourth quarter of 2009. If the results are bad, we'd probably be sellers, unless the stock is still trading for a huge discount to cash. However, if the results are good, we expect to make a lot of money, and may hold onto our position. Good results open up a lot of interesting strategic possibilities for MYRX, including joint ventures and partnerships with major drug companies. We'll probably have to do a lot of blocking and tackling when the time comes, but we'll worry about that when we get to that point and gain some visibility.
Thank you for posting the entire Morningstar review of MYRX. It is conservative and that is a fair way for any of us to look at Myriad Pharma at this point.
I agree that news of positive results in this year will/could give a nice bump. My holding isn't large, but got in at 4.50. I'll add along the way. I'm hoping someday it might feel large when (and if) the PPS reflects positive results.