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Myrexis, Inc. Message Board

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  • jacosa jacosa Nov 14, 2010 12:12 PM Flag

    CRAP SHOOT already (lottery ticket, etc.)

    I like the man.

    Small addition to the crap shoot posting: some of the deep pipeline might have measurable value within a year or two. Developing that without compromising the main prospect (Azixa) DOES require a degree of management competence.

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    • competence?
      $60M+ since spin-off has gone with not much to show for. Both MPC-3100 and MPC-4326 look like flops.
      Azixa phase IIb will take at MINIMUM 2 year to have some results. First they have to find the right DOSES, then LT survival data. Once the trials are done, cash will be gone.
      Anyway, this stock is going LOWER... The company will be taken out by activist investors by year end, my guess, it's ~ $5.5.

      • 1 Reply to chain_reaxion
      • Horrors! They are spending money. And a stash that was supposed to get them to the end of Azixa roughly enough to get through the end of Azixa testing (worst case)! Oh, the humanity!

        We're going to learn something about dosage this week. Remember that in previous reports there were a few hemorrhages attributable to too-rapid tumor destruction. Preliminary reports haven't included any more such events. If we hear about 40% response rate again and no brain bleeds, I think we have a dose.

        Only I have a caveat on the idea of "a dose." It's what, about 40 years that cancer drugs have been dosed according to body surface, and it was a big improvement over dosing by body weight. But MYGN's OnDose product has shown that there are benefits to dosing "better" than by area. All cancer drugs are probably going to need some reevaluation. (Azixa concentrates in brain so strongly that I suspect nearly-constant doses will turn out to be appropriate for tumors located there)

        Eventually, long-term survival will be an issue--if Azixa is ever to become a front-line drug. The present intention is to get a label for salvage use; such labels ARE granted.

        It's too soon to say much about the value of the deep pipeline; I'd be interested in a rational defense of the proposition that "Both MPC-3100 and MPC-4326 look like flops." The company web site makes a decent case that they are doing as well as drugs should at their present level of development. It WILL take competent management to fund advances in the pipeline without either slowing Azixa or giving away too much potential value of other candidates.

        You have a logical problem saying that the stock is going lower and also that it will be taken out around $5.50 within 2 months.

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