1) Metastatic melanoma study results were statistically insignificant! (read the 10K)
2) Mono-therapy missed primary end points 1 of which: avg PFS of 1 month.
3) Combo with carboplatin has negative results according to the CEO himself.
With a total cost of just 9-11 million dollars for the entire Azixa phIIb trial it would be completely wrong not to conduct the trial. Especially since they have seen additive effect between Temozolomide and Azixa, both in the melanoma trial and in preclinical settings.
I agree on MPC-9528, a VERY exciting drug.
OK, I'm not sure what First Eagle could do besides holding at this point. I have seen some action push ELGX forward when Harris made a low-ball bid a year ago, but that was a different situation. Endologix has products and revenues whereas Myrexis is selling hope. I believe MYRX is stalling with additional Azixa P2 trials both to extend their funds and to give time for the rest of the pipe to catch up. It would be best to have several P2 drugs in case one disappoints. Also, as any promoter knows, when you only have a couple of assets, it is best to dangle them over time so as to entice a suitor to step forward for an advantageous deal.
I've NEVER short stocks. My guess is any action taken by FE would move the stock up significantly (of course the stock is trading way below cash). There may be some real values in HSP90 program and Nampt inhibitors, but A good and CREDIBLE management is needed to monetize them, OUTSIDE consultants won't help.
I may be wrong, I've been COMPLETELY WRONG before :)
Anyway, I predict that FE will make the move before the initiation of Azixa PIIb. The logic is quite simple:
After almost 3 years, all 3 Azixa PII trials for 2nd and 3rd line therapies (easy approvals) have failed to meet end points, and now the company wants to go ahead with a new trial for a front line treatment (very difficult). It's a crazy idea just like the Jav acquisiton (no synergy).
I guess FE have had enough of this management. Wall Street look down on them. The company was formed a forced spin-off from MYGN because MYGN investors didn't like this unit neither, JMHO.
Ok, I know there is 1 patient that lasted more than 22 months. I've seen that before some drugs in trials miraculously saved more than just 1 lives, but those drugs and their owners are all gone now, because they failed statistically.
Myrexis is a business, not charitable organization, as you can tell from management's salaries, bonuses, and stock options. Only FOOLS would believe that these people work for a HIGHER CAUSE!
We all die eventually so were the cat and his owner. Eventually everything will reduce to ONE DEFINITE STATE :)
>>By normal criteria, Azixa development is going very well.
I don't think the Street would agree with your assessment; otherwise, they wouldn't give Azixa a negative value.
>>I don't necessarily like the abandonment of the HIV program,
I told you about it weeks ago, but you didn't believe me.
>>If you don't like it, don't invest in little drug developers.
1st Eagle is taking an activist position, so am I :)
Listen to the latest presentation: One patient is still alive after 22 months.
The FDA sets a low hurdle for brain cancer drugs and many successful drugs had initial mixed results.
Scientists do not think in your simplistic terms.
>>One patient is still alive after 22 months.
>>Scientists do not think in your simplistic terms.
Sure, after 5 years, 1 person out of 150, so what scientists think about reproducibility of the results? the chances? Continuing with throwing money at Azixa is it a business decision or just a lottery game?