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Myrexis, Inc. Message Board

  • cockapoodash cockapoodash Dec 16, 2010 6:31 PM Flag

    Can someone bring me up to speed?

    Hi, I actually cashed out of CYPB and looking for a new home for some cash. I'm intrigued by biotechs that are trading below cash -- I know they can burn through tons of cash, but it seems if a company has 100 million in cash and is valued at 80 million, it's upside potential is far greater than the downside. And MYRX has come interesting looking drugs in clinical trials. I haven't done any diligence yet. here are my questions before i start:

    1) what am i missing? why is this valued so low?
    2) one other post i read suggested management is liky CYPB, constantly destroying shareholder value through stupidity. Can someone provide examples of this.

    Anything you can tell me or any direction you can point me to help in my diligence would be greatly appreciated.

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    • We have a couple of people posting [often] who seem to want the company liquidated and the cash distributed. I don't know why they're playing in the small drug developer space; they should be ignored.

      I've summarized the medium term situation in the "crap shoot" topic. Basically, the only thing close enough to approval to be of investment interest is Azixa, and the current stock price is roughly a fair value if Azixa costs all the cash on hand and is approved only as a salvage treatment for GBM. Even with the low-ish response rate seen in the latest presentation, that degree of success seems assured. The maximum possible degree of success would be for Azixa to become an almost-automatic component of multi-drug cancer treatment protocols. Don't bother trying to set a fair stock price for that outcome.

      The company has funding sufficient to take Azixa to an FDA decision and to take its pipeline as far as preliminary phase 2 studies. Substantial added financing will be needed eventually, and much of management's apparent clumsiness seems to have been connected with efforts to be in a position to get that financing on favorable terms (the combination trial with carboplatin [an approved drug being looked at for an off-label indication] could have demonstrated an assured maarket for Azixa...but carboplatin turned out to be ineffective).

      A small phase 2 Azixa in GBM study generally comparable to the one recently reported is due to come out in about a month. Really, the only thing likely to be of interest is whether any patients suffered brain hemorrhages, but that is a very important question, as it is the dose-limiting toxicity for the drug. More than one would suggest a need for further phase 2 studies.

    • stay away from this pig, crappy management

    • great questions, and very smart transition to myrx.

      it's basically the same trade, with subtle differences. mainly myrx does not have an approved product, which would be an attractive selling point for a PE firm.

      having said that, the company never did an IPO, just a straight spin-off. so, no road show, no hype and no bankers pumping the story.

      this company has 3 or 4 potential blockbusters. i think you'll see partnerships develop over the next year with upfront payments. and, you'll see a lot of data in 2011. so your timing is as good as it gets. this, on top of a lot of tax loss selling is why you're see a low stock price (imo).

      first eagle is a big holder, and they seem to be buying more every week. these guys are smart, and not shaken by a weak stock price (just like the cypb investors).

      a year from now, with some money coming from partnering. you could see a company with 5.50 - 6.00/share in cash, no debt, data from phase 2b azixa (lead gbm drug), hsp data and entering phase 2, as well as more clinical compounds entering phase 1.

      2b azixa data in late 2011 will be an important driver of growth. if the idea that azixa can effectively pass through the blood brain barrier, continue to show a good safety profile, and has efficacy, the upside is....who knows, but a lot.

      with one or two products in latter stage phase 2 trials, and oncology companies willing to pay a fortune for anything promising in phase 2b and 3, the idea that you can buy this below cash, even out a year from now blows me away.

      now, this is just conjecture, but i have made my living from finding these kinds of companies, and i have put my money where my mouth is...for better or worse. but i believe this is the single best risk/reward in the bio space.

      i think the risk is a few cents (over the next year), and the upside is as big as anything i have seen. these are are very big markets.

      patent protection will not be an issue here.

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