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Myrexis, Inc. Message Board

  • victoryhammer09 victoryhammer09 Feb 7, 2011 5:28 PM Flag

    if azixa hits this year

    it could be anywhere up to 100/share (2.5b mkt cap)imo. it really will depend on the level of efficacy. if it doesn't hit, and we don't have any success with any of their other drugs (or partnerships)...then maybe we have .50 down.

    so again, within the next 12 months, it's my opinion that we have maybe .50 down (if all goes wrong), and a lot up.

    that's my kind of trade.

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    • Yebbut.

      Marketing this year would only be possible as a salvage treatment. We basically have one read of 40% lab response rate as a salvage treatment, and another of 20% lab response rate. We're waiting for another data point. It has to beat 40% to get any kind of leverage, and I don't think that's likely. That seems to be why management is looking as azixa as a first-line treatment for GBM. If you aren't already on the market for some other indication, or at least starting out with a compassionate use exemption, the road to approval is better-mapped for a first-line treatment. And what I hear about temozolamide is that it isn't a dominatingly good drug.

      So the prospects are great, but I'd expect the payoff to take a couple of years.

      • 1 Reply to jacosa
      • true, but you understand that they don't need to start marketing to have a stock discount the future value. bio's, mining companies, tech's....all the same. just show that the efficacy is there. if this looks like it could be a standard of care treatment (keep in mind the bar is set pretty low) and the stock is gone.

        from that point, i would expect a take out. too many big pharma's looking for these kinds of drugs for this company to be left by themselves.

        of course, it may not work or even work well, and all bets are off. but like i said, if everything fails or no partnerships, a year from now i dont see more than a .50 loss.

 
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