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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Message Board

  • musicmaestroinc musicmaestroinc Aug 16, 2011 3:18 PM Flag

    TLT is Heading Below 100. Slam Dunk!!!

    No doubt about it. Chart it. TLT is going to implode. Only 3 periods in time did it ever trade above 100. Within days it went staraight back down below 100 again. History always repeats itself. This is no different. Actually the most un-warranted move above 100 ever. I'm betting the farm on it.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Be careful what you say.
      Somebody might actually listen.
      -
      You see, there is really no need to threaten to dye your hair blue,
      like Dale Bozzio, Playboy Club Bunny of the Year in 1975, from Boston.
      -
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IasCZL072fQ&feature=fvwrel
      -
      -
      So today, Tuesday, I purchased 5000 TLT put options for January 2012.
      Strike price $96.00
      The range Tuesday was from $2.75 ending at $2.25.
      I got in right in the middle.
      I payed $2.49 per option.
      $2.49 x 5000 = $12,450
      $12,450 + Commissions ($200) = $12,450
      -
      By the end of the day, at $2.25 per option, I am down $1,400 (11%)
      So, do you think we can double our money?
      -
      To paraphrase a newsletter, Quote:
      “Since making a low in mid-February, U.S. Treasury bonds have had a remarkable rally.
      -
      Starting in July, for a variety of reasons . . . ,
      Treasuries have gone nearly parabolic to the upside.
      -
      We believe that this rally, especially in the more volatile long-dated Treasuries,
      is unsustainable and susceptible to correction.”
      -
      RJ

      • 1 Reply to rjjones11
      • The current Treasury pattern has actually happened before.
        -
        Looking through the lens of the 20+-year Treasury bond ETF TLT,
        we see that on the way up to the December 2008 spike high,
        the bonds left a large gap on a weekly chart,
        which acted as upside resistance for the big rally into the August 2010 spike high.
        -
        Both of these spike highs led to significant corrections.
        -
        Now TLT has rallied through the August 2010 gap, and the December 2008 gap.
        On August 9, 2011, TLT hit a high of $109.37,
        just three cents above August 2010 high of 109.34
        -
        Perhaps there is sometimes something to this technical stuff after all.
        Was that it? Was August 9, 2011, the top after all?
        -
        What is the next significant resistance to the upside?
        It is the December 19, 2008, high of 122.99.
        -
        Also notice that TLT’s 200-day moving average is at $92.89.
        IMHO this represents the ‘Normal’ price that TLT should be at.
        At Tuesdays close of $106.23, TLT is 14.3% above it’s 200-day moving average.
        TLT is 14.3% overpriced.
        -
        The following is a link to a chart showing all of these features.
        I seldom have luck getting exactly what I want, but it should show something.
        -
        http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TLT+Interactive#symbol=tlt;range=5y;compare=;indicator=sma(200,,);charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
        -
        RJ

 
TLT
110.05-1.22(-1.10%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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