The way I see it TBT has to go up. Here's why. If Obama wins and Bernanke keeps printing money it is true that the fed might keep buying treasuries but it's doubtful that they would continue to expand their holdings of longterm treasuries since longterm debt carries the greatest risk and it would certainly lead to a ratings downgrade or a spike in credit default swaps. CDS's are like insurance on bonds. If CDS's go up then investors demand higher yield and lower prices. The fed is at the end of their rope. They're at a point where either the government starts calming the credit markets with fiscal reform or their cost of borrowing is going up.
If Romney wins then that is the end of treasury purchases and traders exit stage right.
The vice presidential debates should be a big catalyst and I expect Ryan to do very well since he knows the facts.