TLT may not go down but it will be rangebound at best. Anyone holding TLT must be selling covered calls. Why bother holding something that could fall 20% that yields only 2.7%.
Because it could also go up 30% dummy.
Are you expecting another crisis this year and what is the probability for that? It's overvalued and PIMCO is reducing its long term treasury holdings. QE will have to end in 2014. My analysis is logical and you are just blindly taking risks.