usually its the economy having most influence on treas yields, so if the economy is presumed strengthening there is risk of demand in borrowing and then increased risk of inflation. the fed is responsible for keeping inflation in check so usually yields RISE at that point and then prices FALL.
on the other hand if the ecobomy is weak and/or recession or theres much unemployment or other shocks to stability like housing price collapse, THAT is serious so yields FALL to encourage spending. demand, inflation, hiring, etc.... then prices of treas RISE..... where we are today is no mans land.
there was no good recovery and only another administration with fiscal policies can help.
TLT is etf. when long-term rate goes up, TLT goes down. FED controls ZIRP (short-term rate at 0%) guarantee GROWTH. QE and ZIRP guarantee GROWTH and PROFIT for corporate america. GROWTH pushes long-term rate UP.
QE ZIPR FOREVER is PARTY IN USA GROWTH FOREVER is SELL TLT and BUY STOCK is DONT FIGHT THE FED - JUST BUY STOCK
UNLESS the market crashes then TLT goes up safety play for treasuries at least thats how it has been over last few years........when others are so bearish I wonder if it is time to buy???? time will tell...bet BEN does no taper!! NO taper!! employment SUCKS!!