Anyone know who will bear the (presumed) post-approval costs of marketing, production, etc. Will Forest and Ironwood continue to split such costs? I don't see the specifics of this part of the agreement in the last 10Q.
Nevermind...I see now the deal is "50/50 partnership in the United States to co-develop and co-market"
Anyone want to speculate on peak sales for linaclotide and why they would be any better than Zelnorm? The current pps seems to reflect an approved medication with Zelnorm's peak sales...so to buy now we'd need to expect a significantly better performance. No?
"The Overall Irritable Bowel Syndrome Drug Market Will Expand at a 14 Percent Annual Rate from 2009 to 2019, According to Findings from Decision Resources....In 2019, linaclotide will garner blockbuster sales of $1.1 billion in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan." I think the peak sales for Zelnorm was ca. 550 million (2006) with most coming from the US.
I am not that skilled with the numbers. But, To me the chance of approval for this is almost 100%. It is like HGSI's drug Benlysta. That is why the price is at this level. Once they roll out the drug though or even when it is approved it will pop another 30-40% or more. When a drug is 50-50 my experience is you get a nice pop, and when it isn't expected or 100% ownership it you get those nice 150% pops like last month ITMN.
This has got to be imo one of the top 5 biotech takeover plays.
I am still waiting to buy this, hopefully in the next 6 months at a similar price. Just look at Salix Pharma. They have a similar product for travelers diarrhea and they are trying to get it approved for IB. It went from 6-48 in a few years. You don't get the extreme pop on the stock when it has a 50-50 partnership but I can tell you if they get a quick approval I see the stock at $20-30 in a year or two, minimum. There are a lot of people waiting for a drug like this. IB is one of the biggest conditions affecting people today. Everything goes through the colon, just remember that. FRX is one of the best partners to have, just look at their track record and stock appreciation over the years.