Morgan Stanley's "Bull Case" is $42 if dominent in IBS & CC mkt. $22 base case
Morgan Stanley Ironwood
Bull Case $42
DCF Linaclotide becomes dominant player in IBS and CC markets.
Linaclotide becomes a preferred treatment in both IBS and CC. The key difference from our base case is greater penetration into the chronic constipation market, which will likely be the more difficult market as CC patients tend to have milder disease than IBS (pain is defining characteristic of IBS-C).
This scenario assumes rapid adoption by physicians, no reimbursement issues, and that hundreds of thousands of patients who deemed themselves previously satisfied with current treatment decide to switch therapies due to a potentially even better benefit with linaclotide.