SRPT rise to $45 and pull back was a consolidation. There was nothing that drove this higher besides fake analyst pumps and deceiving hedge funds. This is an immanent collapse ready to happen. The volume is gone! Smart share holders will start unloading for profits. Wait till earnings. Like I said, less than $2 million Q1 earnings for IRWD is 100%. Honestly I think we should expect closer to $600k. Once that happens people will realize this ain't worth $2 billion.
We have a Vivus in the making and everything points to a similar outcome. Vivus had high institutional ownership. It was being sold by insiders heavily during its rise and at its peak. It was getting analyst upgrades left and right. It had a high short interest. The similarities are daunting. Vivus ended up collapsing after its Q1 earnings. Who's got the balls to hold this May 1st? I'll be short, thank you very much
Lol, it was a massive dump indeed. Over 240,000 shares worth over $4.5 million. He is a very smart man to sell, and obviously knows more than we do about how Linzess is selling. Volume was anemic today as well, under 370k and even less than Friday. Crash imminent, I'm shorting more at this level and will short more if it continues to rise. I have a saying when it comes to trading, "follow the money and you shall succeed."
Aw, sorry about ACAD. That sucks, but I'm sure you probably made the right decision at the time with the given amount of information, which is the best you can do. I'm looking at prices for TTNP that were up to about 1.75, so you must have made a killing?
Nothing of mine has yielded as good a killing recently, but I'm mainly just making profit off selling calls.
I can't reply to your other post. This might have been what I saw that made me think you had shorted at 19+: "Show me 19 cause I swear I'm shorting more".
I wish i could contribute more to the discussion in terms of earnings, but my expertise is in biology/immunology, not in the sales of drugs, and I've only started investing in the past 3 years. I have never calculated sales, and only invest in companies that have yet to make any money. I got in here and built up a position at about 10.90 and used covered calls to hold the position till it was 15. Since I don't have any expertise in doing what you're doing or assessing actual earnings, I've stopped trading in this stock once it got FDA approval. I tried shorting a little because it seemed fun and overpriced at 17, but that didn't go well and now I'm just an observer. I like hearing about it though, but I've moved over to NAVB, and TSLA (which models much like a drug company, boom or bust!).
I will hold thru May 1st. If it goes down , I will hold on until the Q2 sales come in . If it goes higher on good earnings what will you do?? Take a huge loss.
Linzess is selling but if Q1 is not upto expectations , Q 2 will be . There is no other prescription drug for people who have failed Amitiza. Even if Linzess does not work as well , there will be huge number of docs and patients trying the drug. Initial sales will beat expectations.
If it keeps going up then yes, I will obviously take a loss and continue shorting more. What do you realistically think this company is worth, $2.5 billion, $3 billion....? My realistic expectations for markt cap by the end of the year is $500-700 million.
Now lemme ask you of this goes down after poor Q1 sales and continues to go down with poor Q2 sales what will you do? Will you take a huge loss of possible 50% or more? Will you continue buying and take further losses? If this drugs shows $20+ million in sales for Q1 I will eat my losses and cover. But it won't. I'm expecting IRWD to post big Q1 losses with under $2 million in earnings. All my vasts amounts of research lead me to believe this isn't selling and even the patients who have success with this have limited success. The still suffer some adverse effects, or don't use the drug daily, or have limited to no insurance reimbursement. This trade lower going into earnings then has a nice haircut when the truth is told. Just in case it trades higher I have plenty of room to short more above 19 and 20, and I will.
How did you short at 19.15? I thought that's what you said a few days ago. I see the 52 week high according to Google is 18.97. Today it touched the 18.93 area again, even with the market -100 points. Doesn't that indicate there's more upside to the stock movement?
You're proposing a very risky move, holding through earnings. I think it could make you a killing, or rip you a new one- what's your expectations if earnings aren't what you think- will it move up? or have all the good earnings been priced in?
I don't recall saying that, maybe you could pull up my post and let me see what you're referring to. Anyways that's meaningless, I am short 27k shares now at average 17.90 so I'm about $10k down plus the $12k from before. I sold 25k of my ACAD shares Tuesday (which sucked cause stock was up 23% today) and bought 170k shares TTNP after 40% blood bath from briefing docs being released. Turned out smart cause TTNP Adcom. Was favorable 10-4 today and I should see much more than 23% tomorrow.
I'm not wrong on IRWD and if it busts 20 I'll short more. But it won't, and I'm confident of that. The volume is gone and the interest was never there. Slow decline till massive drop in earnings. I almost want to sell April 17.50 puts cause I don't think it will collapse all of a sudden. May do that next week or 2.
I can assure you this isn't selling and people aren't loving it. The market for this drug is HUGE, but this drug doesn't fill that void. Google "Linzess is here!" and read the pages upon pages of real life patient testimony on an IBS forum. You can see this drug isn't at all what it's been promised to be.
Reading that along with the fact that I'm not seeing scripts for this in the community makes me believe most certain I am right and this is snake oil. Just out of curiosity Mershaw, what do you think will be IRWD royalty sales for Q1?