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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • silmarilion123 silmarilion123 Oct 22, 2012 11:58 AM Flag

    Is this the bottom?

    Have seen the following signs of a bottom coming in.

    I. Apple bottomed Friday at 609.60.

    II. The IWM bottomed Friday at 81.47 or so, near the bottom of its support band that covers the 81.44 - 81.77 range.

    III. The strong support at 3000 for the Nasdaq 100 has held.

    IV. Moderate support at 1430-1431 (now 1428) or sofor the S&P 500 has held .

    V. The buyer's strike against IMOS intensified Friday with the iwm falling to its second lowest value for the year, between 20 and 21.

    VI. The RSI fell to between 7 and 8 Frida , which is by far its previous lowest value for the year.

    VII. Imos's stock value crashed well below the level of the 2-standard deviation lower bollinger band late last week.

    VIII. The weak earnings and revenues numbers for the current quarter and projections for the next quarter for leading tech companies like IBM, MSFT, INTC, and AMD have already come in.

    IX. The ability of Euopean bad news to surpise folks greatly and lead to sudden sharp sell-offs has moderated. We are unlikely to see a take-down in the markets such as that which occurred on August 4th, 2011 due to European bad news.

    X. Extreme credit looseness provided by the ECB and the Federal Reserve and to some extent by China has been maintained and is expected to be maintained.

    XI. Folks like big round numbers and $11.00/share is the one providing some support for now.

    XII. The gentlemen who stated 3 years of cash flow equal a share price of $12.00 for imos made a good point. That should encourage folks to to buy around $11/share up to $12/share.

    XIII. The big insider sellers have already largely exited the postions they intended to sell this month. I suspected some big players were dumping a lot of shares since imos had lagged leading indices and techs and its price had fallen well below targets set up by triple and rounded tops that formed in September and early October. Had to come here to learn about what Mosel and Giant Haven had done.

    XIV. The mild Chinese slow-down has played out and their economy is heading back up. See Caterpillar's earnings report released today (and many other related earnings and economic reports) and reported on at MSN money among many other sources, Bloomberg etc.

    Conclusion

    Am raising my buy range from $8.25 -- $10.00/share to $10.75-- $11.25/share. I don't believe the share price of Imos is going significantly below the value that acted as the daily low today, $11.18, which is only 4 cents below the value of about $11.22, which was the low value seen last Friday.

    PS
    The current trading price is as follows:

    ChipMOS Technologies (Bermuda) Ltd
    (NASDAQ: IMOS)

    11.24 Down -0.12 -1.06%

    Bid 11.28
    Bid Size 500
    Ask 11.34
    Ask Size 300

    Sentiment: Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Well, imos hit a higher low today. Yesterday's it hit its mid-term low of 11.03, which is 2.78 than the value of the intraday low on July 23rd. Its close of 11.67 was 2.89 than the value of the close on July 23rd.

      Can see how much higher it is now intraday today on msn money. Note that the daily low is 36 cents greater yesterday and even though it is down today (in line with the leading indices) it is still 19 cents greater than the value reached on Friday, the 19th.

      ChipMOS Technologies (Bermuda) Ltd
      (NASDAQ: IMOS

      11.55 Down -0.12 -1.03%

      DETAILS
      Previous Close 11.67
      Open 11.39
      Day's High 11.63
      Day's Low 11.39
      Volume 11,750
      Avg Daily Vol (13 Wks) 176,972
      Bid 11.51
      Bid Size 100
      Ask 11.55
      Ask Size 100
      52-Wk High 19.37
      52-Wk Low 4.78

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I'm really thinking this through. Lot's of good points, and I have capacity to buy quite a lot.

      Don't really get point XII - so 3 years of FCF is $12, so $11 is bottom. Well, 2 years is $8 - so maybe that's the bottom. And 4 years is $16, so we are below the bottom...how can you be below the bottom. Point XII is pretty arbitrary.

      Anyhow, I might put an order in for 5000 shares at $11, although given point XI about big round numbers is the converse is if we break $11, couldn't we fall hard and fast? Good thing I'm saving a LOT of dry powder.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to swindonhines
      • Was today a bottom? Yes it was for today. Tomorrow? Who Knows! But i do think the price is right to buy, so I did. If the sky falls down we all will have a blue head. So chances are low the sky will fall down, IMOS has proven to be correct on their guidance. USD 2.2-2.4 annual earnings is ok for me Buy!! But as stated before, the moment this stock reaches 20-24 USd range I will sell 80% and let the remaining part for what it is. (as stated before). QE will take stock- gold/silver markets much higher!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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