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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • davegras davegras Nov 29, 2012 5:52 AM Flag

    IPO - part 1

    Thanks for the posts Marnis. Caff and others too. I was a little surprised that the IPO on the primary exchange will take place in August. That's 2-3 months ahead of the schedule I had in mind.

    I'm still wondering about how much our equity interest will be diluted due to the merger. IMOS owns 84.2% of ChipMos Taiwan or 708 million of the 842M shares outstanding. The conversion rate will be about 23:6 using 30M shares for IMOS. Put another way, if the merged ChipMos Taiwan is expected to earn $3/share next year, for us it really is 84.2% or about $2.50/share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Has the company clarified the date for the IPO? On the cc they said they "hope" to dual list in 2013. Has there been new information from the comapny on the timeline since the conference call? Thanks in advance for clarifying this for me.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

    • JW,Caff, Davegras, et. al. [ but not the Severless, Dawnless, Templess person]- the corporate structure of IMOS is complex and complicated as is its unwinding. I gave broad strokes in my analysis, the reality is deeper. We could post a 1000 posts and never get full knowledge with all its ramifications. Basically, I think the takeaway is that the EMS listing route has been decided by management as the best for unlocking fair value, and in hindsight we can now better understand some of management's moves and reluctance of this or that to keep their options open. I fully expect some annoucment of the roadmap in due course, sooner rather than later, and then the clock will start ticking [6 months and a day after EMS listing]. I think we have to look at the forest and not the indiviual trees as none on this thread is a Taiwan SEC lawyer. Management and its most influential shareholder, SPIL [who just gave away 800,000 shares at a bargain basement price to close this deal] will protect our interests [despite Buffy's lament]. Think a minute about SPIL's ownership percentage and their stake in all of this.. Think about Chipbond's valuation vs. IMOS's. This will be benefical to us shareholders. All that is needed is a tiny bit of patience. IF EMS does not get annouced shortly then we can all re-evaluate. I gave a pretty strict timeline. IMOS is not going anywhere. The business is going well. God is in his heaven and all is right with the world.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

    • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

      I wonder if its really necessary to go on a worldwide tour to promote the stock given that only 15% of the shares will be floated and investor interest in Taiwan alone should be strong. Besides, SK/SJ are not the best at promotion although they should be more adept in their home country I assume.

    • So we've got many variables that will determine how much our portfolios could be worth on day one including: the conversion rate, the exchange rate, and of course the IPO price which is a reflection of earnings power, comps, and so forth. Speaking of at least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL. So maybe size matters.

    • So we've got many variables that will determine how much our portfolios could be worth on day one including: the conversion rate, the exchange rate, and of course the IPO price which is a reflection of earnings power, comps, and so forth. Speaking of at least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL. So maybe size matters.

    • Here's an example of how I'm viewing this. Suppose you have 10K shares of IMOS. ChipMos Taiwan (including the contribution from Thailin) is expected to earn $3/share next year or $90M. That equals TW$2.61B. Because there are 842 million shares out, EPS is TW$3.10/share. The underwriters decide ChipMos Taiwan deserves a multiple similar to Chipbond which trades at about 14x trailing earnings, but they discount it 20% which equals 11.2x. Multiply that by $3.10share and the IPO goes off at about TW$35/share. 15% of our shares are sold to the public but to make is simple the price stays at the IPO price. So on day one, that 10K IMOS portfolio is worth $285K(23.6 x 10K x TW$35 / 29 (exchange rate), or $28.5/share if you reverse it back to IMOS.

      But what about Thailin? Will the share count increase when they're folded in? If so, then you should adjust the IPO price further, maybe by 15%, along with the metrics. The IPO maybe goes off at $24/share.

      • 29 Replies to davegras
      • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

      • I wonder if its really necessary to go on a worldwide tour to promote the stock given that only 15% of the shares will be floated and investor interest in Taiwan alone should be strong. Besides, SK/SJ are not the best at promotion although they should be more adept in their home country I assume.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Do you get the factor 23.6 primarily from the ratio of the p/e of chipbond to that of imos? $24/share sounds very good. I would be happy with anything above $18/share as my highest buys were between $17 and $18/share.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

      • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

      • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

        I wonder if its really necessary to go on a worldwide tour to promote the stock given that only 15% of the shares will be floated and investor interest in Taiwan alone should be strong. Besides, SK/SJ are not the best at promotion although they should be more adept in their home country I assume.

      • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL.

        I wonder if its really necessary to go on a worldwide tour to promote the stock given that only 15% of the shares will be floated and investor interest in Taiwan alone should be strong. Besides, SK/SJ are not the best at promotion although they should be more adept in their home country I assume.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • At least 15 analysts cover Chipbond which sports a 3.7% dividend yield. Their net margin is much better than SPIL's as is their long-term growth rate; yet the stock trades at a 15-20% discount to SPIL. So maybe size matters. I wonder if its really necessary to go on a worldwide tour to promote the stock given that only 15% of the shares will be floated and investor interest in Taiwan alone should be strong. Besides, SK/SJ are not the best at promotion although they should be more adept in their home country I assume.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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21.71-0.29(-1.32%)Jul 2 4:00 PMEDT