Caff, do you remember the real estate market in 2007. Even great for much of 2008. Not a lot saw the problems ahead. It is not true that 2012 is the worst year ever for semis. Not even among the top-5. Read a bio about the history of Intel.
Did you attend novatek's analyst day? Did you hear them speak of the importance of ongoing cost reductions. That is why they are merging - to take out costs. But also, they want more suppliers so no one has leverage on them.
Sean, I crossed 85 calls at $0.10 with you. I answered Caff's question how I arrive at down 5-10% and 15% GM. I gave more of a basis than anyone here. Give me a moment to respond to his follow-up questions.
Caff, do you remember the real estate market in 2007. Even great for much of 2008. Not a lot saw the problems ahead. It is not true that 2012 is the worst year ever for semis. Not even among the top-5. Read a bio about the history of Intel. There were years where they sliced 10% of staff. Multiple years. I think 2011 was worse in DRAM than 2012. And I think 2001 was pretty awful for semis as was 2008.
LCDs which were not strong in the 1st half of 2012 are now extremely strong. Too strong. Yes, short Novatek too. But there will be excess inventory. There are more samsungs, RIMMs, iPhones, Nooks, Kindles, etc., than will be bought. There will be an inventory overhang. A good investor tries to look 6 months ahead and take a non-consensus view if it is logical. History is on my side. Semiconductors are cyclical and there are overbuilds very often. Because current analyst estimates say numbers will be up - that means I'm wrong? Where is YOUR analysis? Where is your thinking through where possible surprises could come from.