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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • jj_js_007 jj_js_007 Dec 13, 2012 5:16 PM Flag

    IMOS Management is doing great actually!

    For folks who have been through thick and thin with this stock, I must say the management did well contrary to what has been said here. Here are my rational:

    1. During the crisis, they lost two of their top customers and almost bankrupt. They said that they are going to diversify their customer base as well as their product portfolio. They did it. They have moved to higher margin mobile solutions and reduce their dependency on commodity DRAM business. Also, they have diversified their customer base.

    2. They have also turned around the company and is now almost net positive from heavily in debt. This company is a cash generating machine now.

    3. The have balanced between high growth and risks by being prudent on their capex investments. In fact, I said that they have learned their lessons from pre-crisis period where they borrowed heavily for capex investment for future growth. They understood now that future growth, no matter how certain is not certain. They would rather have cash in the bank as they do now.

    4. As the business improved but the stock price did not correspond accordingly, we asked them to do a buyback, give a dividend, and do a dual listing.....and they did/doing it. I'm one of those with an opinion that they should not do anymore buyback as this always masks the inefficiency and do not solve the root issues e.g. Home Depot during Nardelle years.

    5. We have also asked them to do a roadshow in the US and attract analysts coverage. They also did that as well as hire a PR person. Craig Hallum initiated favorable coverage. Since this is a microcap firm, I'm not sure we are going to attract more analyst coverage. After all, this is post-Lehman years and the analyst groups have been shrinking in many investment firms.

    6. They have also provide accurate guidance. In fact, their guidance is always spot on. No sand-bagging or over-promise

    Now, how many companies can we say do the above as 'advised' by their shareholders. I will challenge anybody to go over the last 5 years of earnings call transcripts and let me know what they said they will do but did not do it. You will be hard-pressed to find any.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Foggy;
      Glad to hear your rant was at #$%$ boy.Put him on Ignore as most of us have for a better quality board.Cheers.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Fish breath. You may be one of the worst investors I have come across. Here is your quote "I believe business has deteriorated. I believe management is not honest. I think they will miss 4Q. Tell me, maybe I'm wrong, maybe it's priced in, but if December is down 5% and 4Q comes in below revenue guidance and GM is around 15%, doesn't the stock fall?

      All that said you would buy if a buy back is announced. Laughable isn't it

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Weak comeback fish breath. Why would you even consider buying if you don't believe in management. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to lee.charlie67
      • It's not a comeback. I can't personally confirm the scent of my mom's privates. People that I trust agree with your assessment.
        I think you should ask that question to everyone on this board "Why would you even consider buying if you don't believe in management."
        You hit the nail on the head. They put their money where their mouth is, I will turn on a dime and go long. I believe business has deteriorated. I believe management is not honest. I think they will miss 4Q. Tell me, maybe I'm wrong, maybe it's priced in, but if December is down 5% and 4Q comes in below revenue guidance and GM is around 15%, doesn't the stock fall? Won't shorts pile on. Won't people here on margin be forced to sell? Won't DLS, Chilton, or Acadian sell, knowing that management isn't going to step up. Oh, the Taiwan listing...sure, if it all pans out without more hangups.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • My point was we have beating the #&# out of management but they have been pretty responsive to our suggestions if they they have the means to do it. Sure, they could do better at PR or their previous buybacks, however, i do think that they really do not want to be in the crisis position again where they have no cash and have to beg the banks.

      We all have no control over the price of the stock or the folks that really want to short the stock to make a few bucks. By providing dividend, which is is just $4 million cash ($.14 x 29 million) where they generated over $80-100M free cash flow, this is crazy. Look at CY (cypress) or TSMC. Their dividend is over 30-40% of free cash flow. By providing this dividend, they put a floor on the stock price. I think this is smart. Many people will argue that buybacks are better than dividend wrt to tax (which I agree). However, I really think the dividend is a smart move to ensure the stock price will not fall to the low levels we seen previously.

      If they use 10M for dividend, at current price, the yield will be 3.5% which will attract many income investors.

      • 2 Replies to jj_js_007
      • JJ, You wrote:

        " My point was we have beating the #&# out of management but they have been pretty responsive to our suggestions if they they have the means to do it."

        ***Actually, they've dragged their feet and when they have done something its been minimal."

        "Sure, they could do better at PR or their previous buybacks, however, i do think that they really do not want to be in the crisis position again where they have no cash and have to beg the banks."

        ***What are you talking about? They're in excellent financial position now. Its not 2008. FCF for six weeks could fund another buyback so even if they have to borrow from Bermuda they could easily pay it back post-IPO.


        "By providing this dividend, they put a floor on the stock price."

        ***What floor are you talking about it?"

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Test

    • JJ, I agree with everything you stated except a buy back would be the only thing at this point that would matter. It would increase our conversion rate when IMOS shares are exchanged for Chipmos Taiwan shares. What does not mater is the share price of IMOS but the the outstanding shares would. If IMOS is $25 or $1 our conversion will still be the same. What I think some of us are missing is the need for cash in Bermuda as IMOS will be buying back 4.5 million shares from Thailin at the same time of the IPO. I believe management at this point does not know how much money will be needed for that and how much money IMOS will receive from their sale of 120 million shares of Chipmos Taiwan in the IPO. The purchase of the 4.5 million shares of IMOS from Thailin could be in the range of $75 to $100 million. Even if we did a buy back now of say $10 million and bought back 800,000 shares that would reduce the share count by about 2.5%. To put that into perspective if we think the stock is worth $25 now then after the buy back it would only increase it to $25.63. I think the point I am making is that an extra .63 cents would be great but is not the real focus right now for SK and SJ . I think at this point management should be focused 100% on the Taiwan listing as there are to many unknowns as far as funds that will be needed for IMOS. What we really want management focused on is this best valuation for the IPO. That is where we all will prosper. Approximatly 29 million shares of IMOS will be converted into Chipmos Taiwan and management needs to make sure we get a fare value for Chipmos Taiwan.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to caffeine444444
      • Caff, the point your missing on the buyback is what it means to investor confidence. Its not about the metrics so much as it is about what p/e the market will give a company they think is shareholder oriented. A buyback announcement tomorrow would, in theory, boost the stock less than a buck but I suggest the stock would go higher than that. Without a buyback or threat thereof this stock is more easily susceptible to shorting as well. The fact management does such a poor job communicating everything you said doesn't help as well.

        By the way, what's Thailin's debt level?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Very well put caff, spend 10 million to get .63 is better not to do when the listing is this close at hand.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Jj;
      Have to agree on all point's but number 5. Nobody appreciates the comeback of the year as much as long term holder's. David P. And their P.R. SUCK ! Each roadshow got the stock slammed.The money is there and all long term and Institutional holder's agree the best use of that money is for an " ACCRETIVE " buyback.I'm so tired of beating a dead horse.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sean777007
      • Sean, I agree with you. Foggy you are a retardo. Tons of companies do buybacks. Tons!!! and they don't typically backfire without a perfect plan. If this company truly was earning $3, it could buy stock at $20, and it would be accretive and smart to do a buyback.
        But they will only earn $1 because margins will be so low, so low, and revenue will be down next year, not up. They will be very bad. And when it is $6, do not cry.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • You are a dumb terd and probably work with david paskuale or the company. Read any good finance book, you buy back shares when they are undervalued. That is a fact. The longs on this board that hate me would agree. You deserve to see this back at $6. I will be buying from you then.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
IMOS
23.93+0.01(+0.04%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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