Why exactly is Mosel selling if they can see the IPO on the horizon as clearly as the rest of us? Is there some other factor they're considering here because it seems strange they would plan on selling a half million shares now and not wait a while for the IPO?
Those two issues are not interdependent. We could have the listing timeline announced during the CC without large appreciation until three months from now. Three months from now is exactly half the six months before IMOS could be placed on the main exchange if the listing occurred soon, so it arguably may make sense to expect large outside interest and appreciation half way to the big goal. It's still a very small amount of OI, but it is noticeable the factor by which calls outweigh puts. For comparisons sake the OI for this Friday's $15 call is more then the cumulative OI for June calls. Take options as a rough indicator to form opinions with, not gospel.
Mosel is hemorrhaging cash. Mosel's market cap is now less than $100M (and keep in mind they have $20M in IMOS stock and of course facilities and equipment) so that should say something about their financial distress.
Jaret, Mosel filed to sell 800,000 shares in February 2012 and only sold 35K shares and had to refile after 90 days toi be able to sell more as the 90 day period expired. They refiled again in October2012 765k shares which again expired in
90 days and sold 257K and then they refilled 90 days later in January to sell the balance of 508k left from the original 800K . Mosel has been ask many a time about selling their holdings and decline each time. They were ask to be in the secondary back in october to sell there entire holdings and also declined. The reason for the filing was to be able to sell if and only they felt they wanted to . You could file all the time and not sell a share if you don't want to. Moel which is considered a insider can only sell up to 1% of the outstanding shares in a 90 day window or up to the average daily volume from 4 weeks preceeding the filing uner rule 144. So the most they could have sold in any 90 day period would have been 270,00 shares under the 1% outstanding share or 117k in March,158K in October and 152k in January under the average volume.As you could see the most they could have sold by these 3 filings is 810K and the total filings were for 2,073,000 million shares.
That's a good question. The conventional wisdom on this board is that Mosel is a motivated seller because of its financial distress, which seemed reasonable when the potential of a dual-listing was further out on the time horizon. That logic isn't as compelling at this point, however, if the dual-listing is in fact a near term event and one believes that the IPO will result in unlocking the value of this stock through a significantly higher valuation. Either (1) Mosel's financial distress is severe and immediate, (2) their management team is incompetent, or (3) a dramatic appreciation in IMOS' stock price as a result of the dual-listing is less certian than many here expect. We apparently don't have long to wait to find out.
(1) has been known for years. (2) has also been known. Imos's management is also incompetent. (3) is fairly clear as well. Folks here expect way too much appreciation in imos's stock price. Even with the dual listing, ipo etc, imos will be lucky to break decisively above $12/share. I need it up in the $15 - $18/share range to dump it.