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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • zoomlik zoomlik Mar 11, 2013 8:40 PM Flag

    what I think is going on

    traders and short term holders maybe getting out as they may not want to deal with 6 months of listing in an unfamiliar exchange that is not well regulated and also may not be liquid to access their capital.

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    • Everyone,
      Below is segment of 3/11/13 ThomsonReuters, upgraded to "NEUTRAL"
      Aren't they nice?

      Reason is out the window, group fall-out, Mosel, whatever, last few days, but key:
      "IMOS's current quarter consensus estimate has
      remained relatively unchanged over the past 90
      days at 0.28, while estimates within its Industry
      have moved an average of -24.0% during the
      same time period..".
      If any have sold, some have bought by yours truly.
      GLTLongs, don't whine, don't panic, or lose out.

      "Due to a lack of recent analyst activity, no
      Earnings Rating can be calculated for CHIPMOS
      TECH BERMUDA. The average Earnings Rating
      for its Semiconductor Equipment Industry is 5.8
      and the S&P 500 average is 5.4.
      - IMOS's current quarter consensus estimate has
      remained relatively unchanged over the past 90
      days at 0.28, while estimates within its Industry
      have moved an average of -24.0% during the
      same time period.
      - During the past four weeks, analysts covering
      IMOS have made no upward or downward EPS
      estimate revisions for the current quarter.
      Price Target
      The chart below indicates where analysts predict the stock price will be within
      the next 12 months, as compared to the current price. The high, low, and
      mean price targets are presented.
      24
      21
      18
      15
      12
      9
      Current Price 12-Month Price Target
      10.63
      Mean
      High
      Low
      12-Month Price Target
      Mean (USD) 21.00
      High (USD) 21.00
      Low (USD) 21.00
      Target vs.
      Current
      97.6%# of Analysts 1
      Page 3

    • Or it could be because the electronics industry sucked across the board in January and February.

      Brian White just published something about how badly Apple's supply chain looked in February, but that it wasn't just Apple, but everyone. Caff posted a tally of February results and they reflected that. However, March and April are widely expected to be quite good by comparison.

      I think that most IMOS investors don't even know anything about the whole consolidation process, or if they do know they don't care or don't understand. I think the listing will help us, but more importantly is when they EXPLAIN the process and of course the buyback. That's something everyone understands, and it will be at exactly the right time. Let's hope they get on that soon.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to jaretwilson
      • JW, I can't believe IMOS would trade so heavily on yesterday's news. If I knew the first two months were weak then everyone knew. And if March-April looks solid the stock should be moving higher. Chipbond, which has worse comps, hit a new high last week. And according to Caff, Mosel can't sell that many shares in a given quarter. (Note to Caff: How many shares did Mosel own a year ago? Only 2.5M or so?). Recently, the heavy selling has been done in the last hour. Why? I have no idea. It seems any negative, perceived or otherwise, overshadows the positives. The company may have some good news to report on the 18th but one negative (e.g. only 5% revenue growth forecasted this year) may hurt the stock. I take some solace in the fact that a lower stock price means more shares will be repurchased but if history repeats the stock will move up just prior to when the buyback kicks in.

        We have four more trading days left before the cc and we'll see what the volume looks like. If - and I don't mean to suggest its happened - there is a news leak, its likely related to the ESM IPO pricing. As I've written before, an argument can be made that IMOST will earn $1.50TWD/share this year (after adjusting for currency) and if you apply a 13x multiple, fair value is around $20TWD (Almost every long will disagree with this but I remind everyone that ChipMos has come up short two years running now. Discount that 30% and you have a $14TWD ESM IPO price. 68% of that is us and that equals around $9.50/share. At the current price ($10.32), the market is saying the IPO goes off at around $15TWD (fair value = $22TWD or $15). Does that seem cheap? Sure. But who knows? My point is there may be yet another short-term setback and we'll have to continue bidding our time until the main IPO takes place. In the meantime I hope (and expect) they reveal the IPO pricing and date come Monday because that will remove soooooooo much uncertainty.

    • I think people are throwing anything at the wall and seeing if it sticks. Take a look at the six month chart. We've been undulating between $10-$12 since late October. Do you spend time thinking about the 37 cent price drop that occurred on December 28th? My guess is you don't. Keep things in perspective.

      Guesstimating on daily movements isn't constructive. No one on this board is looking at IMOS as a day trader so why bother worrying about daily movement? We'll have some answers shortly and the listing will begin to play out. The rest is just noise. Instead of worrying or guesstimation spend your time reading a book or learning something new. Three months from now you won't remember this day in IMOS history but you may remember a new recipe you learned or a particular chapter you enjoyed :)

      Sentiment: Hold

 
IMOS
23.45-0.13(-0.55%)May 4 4:00 PMEDT