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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Mar 14, 2013 2:14 PM Flag

    Cowen update.

    Cowen reiterates its buy and see's 4th quarter inline but see's softness in quarter 1 based on softness in the memory space. They said they would buy on any weakness as they expect a very good 2nd quarter and margin expansion. They also said the LCD business is doing very well. Not anything that we have already known except I like the idea of margin expansion and memory business is now on fire which could really blow away the 2nd quarter expectations.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Ok. So imos is going to 9 to 10 then. This is such a weak stock. Why did it go to 19 last March?

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Could sure use some margin expansion. Expanding revenue on declining margins can lead to losses.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Caff, does Cowan have a buy or outperform rating on IMOS? Also, any change in his 2013 EPS estimates?

      By the way, how much of IMOS business is memory and how much LCD? Up until 18 months ago I thought memory accounted for only 15% of sales but in recent quarters it seems the impact on results is much larger.

      • 1 Reply to davegras
      • Dave, commodity DRAM is around 15%, but memory (commodity DRAM, niche/mobile DRAM, NAND and NOR flash) is more like 50%+. For some clients like Micron, packaging, for other clients, testing. Memory as a whole really adds up. LCD driver is close to 30%, and if you include bumping in there it's 40%+. Mixed signal and logic make up small amounts as well. There are some small product categories like e-compass and fingerprint scanners. e-compass is testing, fingerprint scanners bumping. As a percentage, LCD driver and bumping have been growing while commodity DRAM has been shrinking. I think half of capex this year is for bumping.

        Cowen has a buy, and they seem pretty strongly in favor. Don't know about if they changed 2013 estimates, I'll defer to Caff on that.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Caff, I realize you may not be able to answer this but is Cowen buying now? This appears to be weakness (IMHO) or are they expecting a dip before the run up? Thanks. I still have more powder after buying this week but would like to brace myself for another drop.

      • 1 Reply to yellowfins2000
      • Cowen report is 2 months too late. Everybody knows this as they put out revenue every months. Also just said march is picking up. THEY SAID THIS! and the stock already pulled back. Everything is out. Only thing that is not out is listing.

        If people are so stupid and can't add numbers and sell, then you take their money from them. Ask Sardonic, he is used to this and can tell you how it works. Looses money over and over.

    • Is margin expansion a shock? You like the idea, woopdee-do. How awful will 1Q GM be? It should expand from the toilet.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 2 Replies to sardonicwanker
      • The whole friggin world can add #'s. And they actually said this already. And some will figure out that March is actually shaping out to be a good month, and next quarter a blowout. THAT IS WHAT MATTERS!

        I have no friggin idea how you can possible make money on your shorts. Go short more Intel and Microsoft and hope that as bad as people expect them to do, that it is even worse and maybe you can pick up 50 cents. But plese do not forget to pay the dividend. Or maybe just as bad as they are, they go up becasue of rotation, or maybe things aren't as bad as people expect, and you get smoked in one day and you will need 10 of your hairbrain ideas to pan out just to make up the loss on the one trade gone bad.

        YOU ARE AN IDIOT!!!!!!! I don't think I have ever seen such an idiot. STOP BLOWING YOU MOM'S MONEY! SHE AIN'T GOT ANYMORE!

      • I will be serious here. 1Q will miss big. Asking a question we all know the answer too. What is your point? We may open 20% down if no listing and no buyback is offered. Or up 30% on a hat trick LISTING, BUYBACK and GREAT 2nd quarter that said we will know 18/03/2013.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

20.11-0.79(-3.78%)Oct 22 4:00 PMEDT

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