A lot of noise and petty posts on this board of late.
Bottom line is that long-term longs remain focused on what matters - the low EV/FCF, massive multiple disparity between IMOS and peers, potential for multiple expansion with Taiwan listing, potential large dividends, buybacks, etc.
Hopefully Monday will be fine and Cowen setting the bar on 1Q will take away any issues from a weak 1Q guide.
Things I expect Monday - poor 1Q outlook, improving outlook regarding March and future quarters, expectations for improving margins post 1Q, positive view on potential for new business, positive view on listing process, suggestion that buyback is coming soon.
Things that could go right on Monday - Buyback announcement, detailed color on significant improvement in 2Q, specific details regarding Taiwan listing, positive news on SIGNIFICANT new business developments.
Things that could go wrong on Monday - Wait and see approach on buyback, limited color regarding new business opportunities, issues regarding margins, push-out of Taiwan listing or inability (for legal reason as usual) to provide meaningful update on where it stands, or any other typical foot-in-mouth stuff from management.
Regardless, we need to keep our eyes on the prize. If you never heard of ChipMOS and were looking at it's metrics for the first time, it is simply stupid cheap. We have been patient, too patient, and I am the FIRST to say, that management (although excellent operationally) has not helped (never seen a co with this much FCF not buying back stock AGGRESSIVELY) - but stay the course, we are almost there...and clearly regardless of Monday, fundamentals for all of IMOS' customers are improving, so their business is soon to follow.
Meanwhile back in reality, the price languishes about 10.40 with a bid of 8.61 and an ask of 10.69 or so. The stock is up about 2.50/share from January of 2012 though. It is also above its July 23rd intra-day low of 8.25 and close of 8.79 then. Why did imos go to 19/share last march?
Chipmos Taiwan will be trading prior to the mid point in April and they will discuss it on the CC . Cowen has taken down 1st quarter revenue to $152 millions rom $158 million and at the same time said 2nd quarter will be better then previous estimates as will be full year now forecasted to be up 5% to $692 million even with the weaker first quarter from just up 3% or $677 million. Based on these new estimates the next 3 quarters will be great.