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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • davegras davegras Mar 28, 2013 7:52 AM Flag

    Tailwinds

    The latest Valuable Insights article, though not revealing anything particular new to us, continues to do a good job highlighting how cheap IMOS is. Yet, I think even they are underestimating just how many positives are converging to make IMOS one of the most inexpensive stocks out there. In April we'll have the ESM listing and the new buyback program. The ESM listing of ChipMos Taiwan and subsequent trading will hopefully spill over to the share price of IMOS, closing whatever value gap exists. In May we have another CC at which time management will be updating us on an already strong business environment. Since the upcoming buyback can be completed in about a month, we might hear of another potential buyback, or perhaps better color on how the company plans to use the cash received from selling shares in Taiwan plus what's in Bermuda. During this time analyst coverage in Taiwan probably will have already come out. This means after each CC, there should be positive updates coming out of both countries. In addition to strong biz, we'll have favorable currency rates and a reaffirmation that for the next three quarters there will be sequential growth. Growth, ESM trading, buybacks/dividends, increased coverage in the investment community, margin improvement, attractive metrics, strong balance sheet, and a look toward the positive catalysts next year all represent a number of tailwinds. I've been in IMOS since Q1 2005 and I can't recall it being this good.

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    • How do you differentially define metrics from the balance sheet? Is an improving margin a metric?

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I'v said It before but now It truly Is " The perfect storm ".

    • Somebody else agrees with you. Look at the seeking alpha article today. This is why stock is up strong today. We're getting more visibility in the investment community. Wish I'd bought more. I tried to, but limit orders never work with this stock and market makers always #$%$. Oh well.

      • 1 Reply to jdnoles90
      • its not too late to add, just buy it. counting pennies today is not the story. buy it now and you will thank yourself later. Its all coming together, buy back in a couple of weeks and it rips up even more,this is the beginning of the breakout. I added today at 12.50 and I'm now all in.Of course if wish I was all in on my purchase in the 8's-9's 10's ect... But I'm good here now. Do you not know whats happening. seeking alpha has a good article but this is not whats driving IMOS Look at the fundamentals.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Dave, agree with you. Argument laid out well and huge upside described (or perhaps even understated) without hype/embellishment.

      Was giving more thought to the idea of long-term strategic customer relationships. Assuming a deal with Micron or Renesas or someone else big is possible, as long as cap-ex required is not too big, the free-cash flow story could remain intact. For example, if cap-ex were going to move to $200 million, but it resulted in revenues approaching $1bn and current EBITDA margins were maintained, that would increase EBITDA to $330 mil, which after cap-ex and taxes would be FCF in the $100 mil range. So we'd have a growth story, with great FCF characteristics which should result in earnings multiple expansion. Management would have to clearly explain that the deal carries very attractive terms, helps margins, and importantly, FCF will continue to be exceptional. Again this assumes cap-ex may increase 100% y/y to $200 mil, and not a move to $500 mil or something of the sort.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
IMOS
23.90-0.28(-1.16%)Jan 28 4:00 PMEST

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