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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • caffeine444444 caffeine444444 Apr 9, 2013 3:32 PM Flag

    Todays Movement

    Cowen came out with a report today stating that the ChipmosT will start trading in a couple weeks. They beleive that when it does trade it won't take long to move much closer to Chipbond valuation which is up 50% on a P/E and over 200% in all other metrics. Cowen is now calling this an arbitrage and should move switly to Chipbond's valuation.They also mentioned the Micron merger with Elpida and the likelyhood that IMOS could take away all of PTI business and have it transfered to IMOS. They said that margins a tracking much better then previouly reported and buisness if very good. They up there GM on gold bumping from 14% to the high teens. Cowen metioned that a lot of Microns assets could be sent to IMOS on consignment so as to keep down a lot of CAPX spending for IMOS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I've gotta say, Cowen has really done a great job. They've really dug deep into the details and seem to have a handle on all the issues involved in the business.

      As Jay and Marnis said, this is a perfect confluence of events. Everything is going right at once for ChipMOS. It will be interesting to see when people realize that.

      March numbers out soon. Can't wait.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • monthly revs are not good, don't get too excited...

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Do you give credit to today's break-out to Cowen's report here? Folks here have known for some weeks that imos was going to be listed on the Taiwan emerging markets exchange in a couple weeks. So is there now a good chance that imos's big run-up will occur this April and May as opposed to when the big listing happens in a year? What does PTI mean? That is good about the deal with Micron keeping CAPX down as that will drive EPS up ahead of estimates which will be reflected in stock price jumps in later earnings reports, perhaps starting in August or even May.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Thanks, Caff. This is indeed an arbitrage opportunity. Not only will the stock need to catch up with Chipbond's metrics, the mere fact that Taiwan trading will lead the US price through the ADR's creates an opportunity to buy the U.S. shares in advance of the impending re-valuation. There has never been a better time to be invested in IMOS. Absolutely EVERYTHING is going their way right now. Without any hype whatesoever, $35 might be too low a 15-month target price...

      • 2 Replies to jayand777
      • Jay, well said. I think most investors and even the Street analysts are a bit behind the curve. We've been talking about the valuation gap for months. We've noted the operating leverage and new business opportunities. Throughout last year local analysts were conservative with their estimates for Chipbond which had to be adjusted upward. I see the same thing happening with ChipMos except I think it will be more pronounced. If things play out as anticipated (e.g. new Micron business, gross margin in the low 20s, etc.) - and I believe these assumptions are reasonable - I think we'll see some significant upward revenue/earnings revisions.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Jay- I think you are right on. EVERYTHING [as you printed it] is going the IMOS way. The roadmap is laid out for all to see. There is no reason on this planet why IMOS should not have a stock price within hailing distance of smaller rival Chipbond in short order.. TW analysts will be comparing the metrics [and prospects] of both companies as the undrewriters sell that 110M shares starting very shortly. The only question I have is do we have to wait for major TW listing in March to get parity with peers or will it happen more quickly. The next CC is in May the one after in August. I have a feeling to get complete parity investors may have to wait until then. By then business should be booming and if we are significantly undervalued the gap should close quickly. Caff and others have shown this comparision. Now analysts will follow suit. And to get the full flavor of the Micron/Elpida ramp up and other hot business one just may want to wait until the August CC. But I am not sure and only tme will tell.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Analysts are no different than university students having to write reports, with the difference being that for them plagiarism is OK.

      Look for the Taiwan Analysts to be looking over Cowens report to "See what they wrote" My guess is that what they write will be same, and maybe even more positive.

      The good news is that they stock her in NA is starting to close the gap before the IPO. Money won;t be left on the table. Not when it's this obvious.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Caff;
      Great new's and thank's for sharing.Cheers

    • Mr. Caffeine, thanks you.

      I made 4 promises.
      1. IMOS be $13 on Monday. It get to $13.
      2. IMOS be $14+ this week. It get there today. And it will return there soon.
      3. Buy ocls, go to $5 this week. Still buy, but now believe next week.
      4. Buy sIMO. Is up. Buy under $12, will be over $16 by June.

      Also, say buy fslr. No did not say that. Wish I did.

      Listen to me. Word of Jesus H pass through me like stewed prunes. I feel the word and knowledge.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Caff- the news keeps getting better and better....

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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