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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • jayand777 jayand777 Sep 20, 2013 9:48 AM Flag

    Has, OT...

    Has, do you have an opinion on ANAD, Anadigics, in the same field as TQNT. ANAD will continue to lose money for a few more quarters, but they seem poised to turn around nicely. They have picked up nearly all the Samsung hot products and seem to be developing best-in-class products. I thought a few months back that they would be a good acquisition target of TQNT or RFMD.

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    • Okay, quick analysis on ANAD:

      Summary is I don't see any compelling reason to buy at this point for the following reasons (open to debate as you may know more than I....and I did read the Aug SA article):

      - They lose money & expected to lose money thru FY2014 & perhaps beyond. I don't like this as it bring in cash reserves & perhaps secondary offerings, etc. They have $36 million cash & no debt. While losses will be cut in half from 2013 (-$0.53 EPS) to 2014 ($0.22 EPS), I don't like companies who lose money. At 83 million shares, these 2013 & 2014 losses would total $62 million & nearly twice cash so funding is an issue

      - EPS Estimates were changed to show slightly higher losses. The analysts are projecting over 23%/year revenue growth so there may be a time to buy in the future. ZACK's article rates them a #4 Sell.

      - Chart looks bad as 50 DMA is declining & below the 200 DMA (bearish and opposite of the 'Golden Cross')

      - I don't see how they differentiate their Power Amp products & they compete with biggies TQNT (I own), SWKS (sold recently), AVGO (like but don't own) & RFMD. The industry is going toward more integration of PA's with BAW/SAW filters for LTE & one world design phones. ANAD's lack of filters may hurt them (and why I own TQNT & like AVGO). LTE at least triples the PA/Receiver/Filter content of phones

      - Insiders seem to be selling although there are many reasons for this...but I don't see any insiders buying

      - SA August article discusses past problems but I don't see them recovering to compete with TQNT, SWKS, etc. & the industry is going toward integration of PA's with filters which ANAD doesn't have.

      - Only larger customer mentioned is Samsung who also uses other suppliers. I don't see how ANAD can compete and win new business

      Again, this is quick look . What are your comments & reasons? I would watch this & see if they can grow revenue before buying & if margins improve as they may be giving away product for market share (as RFMD).

    • RFMD has gone nowhere for the last 2 years, except somewhat down. During that time TQNT was oscilatting until early in 2013 and then pulled up.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Looks like himx is the pick of the litter. It has been on a tear since August 30th now. Imos has been relatively weak. Magnachip has stalled out as has apple.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I'm traveling now but give me a few days and I will reply. I am always looking for additional investments.

      While I do that, I would recommend you go to the TQNT website and review their presentation. Quite insightful.

 
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