maybe red. you're right, a lot of unknowns. but, there are some knowns:
a. remember what happened when ph1a results released? Gap open at .22, then continued selling down to the close at .20 on volume of only 2.5M... only 1.5% of the float changed hands (I personally found it very disappointing on that kind of news). It's possible we may see that kind of action again on ph1b, albeit at maybe a somewhat higher price level. It's "possible"... I could be wrong.
b. 113M was added to the float last month. My guess is that at least 90 - 95%, maybe more, of that is still in the hands of "insiders". At what price levels will they be willing to let go of some of that (unknown, but very important question because the answer will determine, I believe how the price action plays out, not only on ph1b, but in days/months after).
c. Institutions and hedge funds have to get their shares the same place we do, in the open market. Notwithstanding a reverse, when, how much, and at what price, will they be willing?... unknown, but this, in conjunction with (b) will, I believe, also bear greatly on price action. Anyone here on this board willing to sell their shares for less than $1 dollar?.... $5 dollars?... 10?... not me.
I guess my theory is this: what will drive price significantly higher here will be the transfer of "ownership" of the float from the insiders to the institutions. If at 100M shares, then insiders own roughly 60% of the float.
"Anyone here on this board willing to sell their shares for less than $1 dollar?.... $5 dollars?... $10?."
I will sell for less than $1 if the opportunity comes in the next few weeks. I'll sell for less than $5 anytime. $5 is a twenty five bagger from here. Why not? If it keeps going above $5, oh well, I still make 2500% If I sell and it falls back, I can re-buy if I want.
I would, of course, be willing to sell at $10. The trouble is, I wouldn't be willing to hold to $10.
There is an old stock market maxim to which I subscribe: "Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs never do."