Earnings history -
Sep 09: 8 cents; 167% above estimate
Dec 09: 20 cents; 122% above estimate
Mar 10: 5 cents; met estimate
Jun 10: 10 cents; 67% above estimate
Earnings estimates =
Sep 10: 13 cents
Dec 10: 19 cents
2010: 44 cents (PE = 4.5 / 0.44 = 10)
2011: 89 cents (PE = 4.5 / 0.89 = 5.1)
If they hit the estimates, earnings would have grown 100% YOY and the PE is 5. I say BBBBBBBBB-SSSSSSSSSS. This company has a history of beating the estimate so the forward PE would be even lower than the above numbers. Either the analysts have it wrong or the market has it wrong. Which one? I'm betting that the market has it wrong. The mean estimate for the current quarter, next quarter, current year, and next year have all gone UP in the last 7 days. Meanwhile the stock has gone down. Buy it and sit on it. You'll make a bundle.
Yeah, at this nanosecond in time, the Street hates NG companies. Big deal! That's why the stock is so cheap, dude. I suppose you think it's better to buy when the Street loves NG companies? Was that you buying GMXR at 88.30 in July 2008 just before it traded at an all time high of 88.35? The Street certainly loved GMXR back then, huh?
Let's recap, shall we?
Since Jan 2010, this stock has gone down from 15 to 4.34, a decline of 71%.
In the last 4 months, the stock traded as high as 9.62, a decline of 55%.
In the last 2 months, the stock traded as high as 8.39, a decline of 48%.
Over this time:
- the company RAISED their production guidance for Q3 to a range of 4.7 bcfe to 5.0 bcfe.
- the company RAISED their production guidance for 2011 to a range of 28 to 30 bcfe from previous guidance of 24.0 to 25.5 bcfe.
- the company RAISED their production guidance for 2012 to a range of 32.0 to 34.0 bcfe from 29.0 to 30.5 bcfe.
- the company increased their production 15% in the first half of 2010 as compared to the same period in 2009 while deploying 20% less capital for first half 2010. Can you spell hugely better efficiency?
- the company said that they are on budget to meet their capex requirements in 2010 and have a sufficient borrowing base in excess of their liquidity needs for the next 3 years.
- On May 5, the company reported Q1 earnings were 14 cents per share, handily beating the 5 cent per share consensus.
- On Aug 4, the company reported Q2 earnings were 10 cents per share, handily beating the 6 cent per share consensus.
In the past 4 months, NG futures have been relatively stable (for a commodity futures contract) between a low of 3.81 and high of 5.20.
- The stock is now trading at a 52 week low, and at the lowest price since March 2004, over 6 years ago.
Nothing, and I mean NOTHING justifies the beating that this stock has taken. You go on spouting off about the Street hating NG stocks and pulling $2 and $3 prices out your rear, and I'll keep on adding to my position.
This stock is a huge BUY, but my only advice to others is do not get over-leveraged and forced to sell because of a margin call. Buy what you can reasonably afford and sit on it for a while. You'll be glad that you did.
this stock is very cheap! I would rather a stock like this that anticipates nothing than a stock that anticipates everything! 2 years ago july 1 gmxr was 80 dollars built for perfection, now at 4 dollars build for disaster! The presentation and guidance and hedging indicates to me that there is very little risk and I as well continue to add everyday 500 at a time and continue to average down from the recent 5.375 entry point around 1 week ago! It is the market and of course oil and gas are also following the poor economic results. Those that hope and want gmxr to go 2 dollars better hope not because the results just might be that you will out of a job!
another beaten up oil and gas in the range is wres
I don't have had a position in the company but I sold in the 6's and haven't returned. I'm watching this stock because I feel it will fall more and will enter at that point. I do know the difference between trader and investor. A trader sold this stock before got this low and will buy in at a lower price. An investor is calling GMXR's investor relations dept. wondering wtf is going on.
I've seen it over and over again, the investor buys into Bear Stearns, Enron, Wachovia, Lehman because of it's percieved value and then are shocked when the well runs dry.
Not saying GMXR is going away, just think it's a play that is on shaky ground for a while. A bump is definitely coming in the short run (mainly because it can't continue going down at this rate). Eventually it will continue on its course as we decifer what this economy will eventually do.
also, you wouldn't be here wasting your time one if you had no vested interest. So you are either short or long, or trading. Any of which is just fine.
also, obviously not trading on fundamentals on some NG co's but eventually it always returns to them. Which the only reason why people would invest here or in the likes of an atp, gdp, wg, etc.