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  • highlyleveraged highlyleveraged Nov 14, 2012 4:07 PM Flag

    Everyone enjoying this "Obama Market"

    I hope we hit the fiscal cliff...

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    • There is a HUGE sell-off coming that will affect the entire market. This Market is going to drop so fast shortly people will not even know until its done. Whats been happening the last couple days is nothing. History Repeats:

      The economy had been growing fluidly for most of the Roaring Twenties. It was a technological golden age as innovations such as radio, automobiles, aviation, telephone and the power grid were deployed and adopted. Companies that had pioneered these advances, like Radio Corporation of America (RCA) and General Motors, saw their stocks soar. Financial corporations also did well as Wall Street bankers floated mutual fund companies (then known as investment trusts) like the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. Investors were infatuated with the returns available in the stock market especially with the use of leverage through margin debt.
      On August 24, 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at a value of 63.9. By September 3, 1929, it had risen more than sixfold, touching 381.2. It would not regain this level for another twenty-five years. By the summer of 1929, it was clear that the economy was contracting and the stock market went through a series of unsettling price declines. These declines fed investor anxiety and events soon came to a head on October 24 (known as Black Thursday) and October 28 (known as Black Monday) and October 29.
      On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, much celebrated by investors previously, now served to deepen their suffering.
      The following day, Black Tuesday was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30 points to close at 230 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.
      By the end of the weekend of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40 percent from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months but it would be a false recovery that led unsuspecting investors into further losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would lose 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932. The crash was followed by the Great Depression, the worst economic crisis of modern times that plagued the stock market and Wall Street throughout the 1930s.

      • 2 Replies to highlyleveraged
      • The November jobs report, usually released on the first Friday in December, could become Black Friday for the US market. This report may show a large number of layoffs as companies cut headcount ahead of the high and uncontrollable health care costs of Obamacare. I've been adding to short hedge positions in anticipation of a probable plunge in the market when the November jobs report is released.

      • Good recap. History, or people, do tend to repeat their errors. That's why we keep adding different regulations for investors and exchanges. Notice in the recap of the '20's and '30's, one of the exacerbating factors was margin calls. At that time investors could control shares with 10% down, so when the calls came in they still owed 90%, something no longer allowed.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • Yep, I agree, I hope everyone in the market loses all their money, I hope it all goes to zero and doesn't come back, I hope the central bank can't fix the mess they made and they are all made accountable to our country in a public hanging.

 

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