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GMX Resources Inc. Message Board

  • oroplata68 oroplata68 Jan 2, 2013 12:53 PM Flag

    Target Price $3.50


    Target Price from yahoo : $3.50

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I know the R/S is a big event but the major pieces to the ongoing GMXR saga will be:
      1) Funding a capex program.
      2) Dollar amount, terms and concessions (discount and free/discounted stock) to fund a robust plan.
      3) Participation of GSO/Blackstone and solidification of their primary position.
      4) Whether GMXR attempts to float additional stock at the new post R/S price.
      5) Cash flow and remaining cash at the end of Q4 2012.
      6) Cash flow rate of increase vs. debt rate of increase.
      7) Well results.
      8) Any sale of assets.
      9) Joint ventures.
      10) Possible majority ownership of common by GSO/Blackstone.
      11) Possible management changes.

      If I am GSO/Blackstone I issue another loan that exceeds the $27 million related to the payoff of the 2013 debt. This loan may amount to $50+ million. This loan would use the same tactics as the previous loan to step above other structured debt but also include a slug of stock, restricted shares + options for a substantial amount of stock at an "in the money" price. In combination with their existing common stock, GSO/Blackstone would control the company. If the stock price dips, they acquire more common in the open market. They may even have a clause to exchange some debt for common at a predetermined price. Once the GSO/Blackstone common stock basket is full enough, they offer to take the company private at say $8.50 per share. This equates to a pre-split price of $.65/share. If the common is selling for $5.50, they will tout the 55% premium. If wells results or economic events rapidly deteriorate, they bleed the company dry with debt and exercise any necessary cross-defaults on debt. Win-Win.

      We will see what happens but the R/S is not as important as some of the items listed above.

    • Tomorrow or the next day it will be about $6.50.

      Sentiment: Buy