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GMX Resources Inc. Message Board

  • stevegrogan04 stevegrogan04 Feb 15, 2013 4:30 PM Flag

    Message for all Longs

    Hi. If you are paying attention to the board, I sold this past Monday at $6.50 after that press release last Friday. I urgh you to consider doing the same. I was a huge believer for 12 months. I gave them many passes on mistakes and stuck up for them. I had a vision they would turn it around. They have failed.
    If you have seen me post in the past, you know that while I was long, I would try and defend GMXR against the guys who would bash them. And I would tell the guys that said to sell to go away. And now I am one of those guys. Wish I had listened to them, and stuck my to traditional investment thesis and sold a looong time ago. I hate to see people throw good money after bad. I did that too many times with GMXR. If I offended anyone over the last 12 months, I appologize. If anyone bought or held based on my postings, I appologize. I hate that I was behind these guys all the way and they have done very little for us.

    I bought for the dream and hope of a double, or triple.....or more in short order.

    I held and bought more thinking that the more it went down, the more I was going to profit when it turned around. That is not something I usually do. I will usually sell small caps quickly if they drop like a rock. I broke my investment thesis here and it failed.

    Here is what I do:

    I create a thesis for why I invest in a company when I invest. If any of the reason why I bought are broken, I sell. If I am at a 20% loss at anytime, and the thesis is still intact, I add more.

    From day one, these guys failed the thesis. Here was the thesis a year ago:

    1) As long as I believed Nat Gas would be at $5 in 2013 - Hold Stock
    2) As long as they are growing oil production q over q - Hold Stock
    3) As long as their earnings were improving (regardless of a loss or not) - Hold Stock
    4) As long as they hit guidence for production - Hold Stock
    5) When they announced the Cotton Valley Sale - If that sale was $150mill or more- Hold Stock
    6) As long as the wells Ip rates were ave or above ave, and they were likely to make money -Hold Stock
    7) As long as they had enough cash on hand to fund atleast 6 months of capex - Hold Stock

    As you can see, based on this list, I should have sold a long time ago and probably at a small $5,000 loss, not $80,000. My fault. Last time I ever not stick to the plan. Once I deviated from it, and found myself down 40%, I was not going to give up.

    The true sign to sell, would have been when they only got $69 mill for CVS. That was not nearly enough to satisfy capex needs. The price when that info was release was more than twice the price today. It has lost roughly another 60-70 percent since then.

    I am writing this to make myself feel better about backing these guys. I am #$%$ about it. Even though I am out and sleep better at night, it still bothers me I backed these guys so heavily. So please consider moving on, ask yourself, what is your thesis for holding? What will make you sell? Take what is left and go. It just does not look like a turnaround story anymore, but a sinking ship. And if you are like me, keep a eye on this thing and invest later, when this bottoms and they show signs of life, if that ever happens.

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