Is it possible the 1st qtr is going very strong, so strong and the company is holding off the 4th qtr release to report such, and is likely to report an operating profit for the 1st qtr. despite a loss for the 4th. The delay is to make sure once the company gets to a certain date in the first qtr. profitability is in the bag????Thoughts.
Okay, I am sure MG44 would be pleased with an outcome that matched your numbers TG. All of us would be except for the few awful short bashers here. Is it possible that the Country issue can benefit the 4th qtr.?
The Freddie Mac issue will be charged to fourth quarter. I believe the loss from the Freddie issue is about $250 million.
The cures improved and this should help. but the new delinquincies are still 10,000 per quarter higher than break even. At $12,000 per new delinquincy, the cures would need to ofset a $120,000,000 loss on new delinquincies plus $250,000,000 in losses due to the Freddie issue. My guess is that the loss is $300 million to $400 million for the fourth quarter.
My forecast for 2013 is a loss of about $50 million per quarter based on new delinquincies generally trending down by about 22% from the fourth quarter to the 1st quarter. $200 million for the year.
I believe 2014 is the year we will see a small profit or break even. Once we break even, the big ship MTG should sail smoothly for a few decades and we should be able to realize a gain on our investment for those who bought at low prices and a return on investment for those who have held stock from the highs to the lows.
I believe that as part of the settlement, they are taking more time to audit loan files and #$%$ the aging of the delinquency inventory for reserve allocations.
Therein, lies the opportunity to reduce reserves, if it turns out that of the claims paid were from the late stage buckets.
The "provision for losses" is a very subjective process. My guest is many of loans paid as part of settlement with Freddie Mac were of late stage delinquency inventory. If that turns to be the case, then the prior "prior years" portion of "losses incurred" would be negative thereby, lowering the overall "losses incurred" for Q4 2012