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MGIC Investment Corp. Message Board

  • mctr_dangerfield mctr_dangerfield Mar 26, 2013 2:01 PM Flag

    So, besides the price, what changed? My take:

    Nothing.

    If you liked it at $6, or if you liked it at the offering $5.15, you have to truly love it at $4.45.

    The stock had an extraordinary run. It was held aloft by GS to push the secondary. The company still benefits from the funds, the housing sector is in the same shape. The FED position is still full steam ahead.

    We are witnessing a price correction/consolidation is all.
    Buy low, and sell high.

    Get in while its forming support at current levels.

    md

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • cavanyc@sbcglobal.net cavanyc Mar 26, 2013 7:57 PM Flag

      dude it's all about the price duh. The rest is Conversation.

    • Mctr_dangerfield. Good Post. Thanks. Do you think GS is selling stock below $5.15 to complete the additional 20M?. I'm saying this because of MGIC's announcement first day (Neither the offering of the common stock nor the offering of convertible senior notes will be contingent on the completion of the other offering) So. is that possible MGIC is selling stock at a discounted offering after 135M shares?

      Thanks

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to edi_kh2000
      • No I don't think so. I think Goldman elevated ahead of the offering to help get the offering price at a favorable level. They supported to get all the shares out in and around the offering price. And they ended up selling nearly twice the volume of the offering over a couple three day period. I think they floated the over allotment as well.

        So the question: then what happened. I think its fairly straight forward. All the additional shares that exchanged hands at those levels above the 135M allocated, went to a lot of retail and fast money types. And shorts added to the float nearly the size of the secondary. We tracked one of those days where some new 54M shares were added to the short pile in one day. So when Goldman and the others were done, circulating the new shares largely to strong holding institutional parties, we were left with a "trade on your own" situation, which then surcame to a normal consolidation period.

        So who ever the big shorts are at those higher levels would like to shake as many shares as they can before buy pressure forces themt o fuel the next run. A lot of shares, a long basing period.

        An excellent time to re-enter or accumulate of take initial positions.

        It is sitting at support at current levels...
        fwiw,
        md

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I agree - I added at $4.51 yesterday and will buy more if it goes lower. This stock is undervalued now based on capital on hand and new business being written. Housing market getting hotter....

 
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