Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • faosto faosto Dec 9, 2013 10:39 PM Flag

    I wrote this on Nov 25th

    ...when the stock price was $24.84. We are now half way to my short term target.

    faosto • Nov 25, 2013 10:11 PM
    I think ENTA is worth $36 right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • you are a genius what's your next Michael Jordan?

    • New target: $80 buyout price. Why $80? That's a $1.44 billion market cap. I think ABBV's revenues will hit, conservatively, $4 billion on this drug, given the profoundly phenomenal results (best-in-class!). At 15% royalties (which is conservative - it's more like 18%), ENTA will peak at about $600 mill for ABV-450. Add in another $200 mill for MRSA vac if it works (that's very conservative but it hasn't proved out yet). $800 mill in peak revs X 3 discounted 40% = $1.44 billion sales price = $80/share. That still gives ABBV tremendous upside on the purchase price, because if the MRSA drug is a homerun, that's over $1 billion in revenues, plus ABT-493 and other compounds are showing promise in the pipeline, and those come along for the ride. I think $80 is CHEAP, but I also think AABV, being a new and aggressive company with their largest selling drug going generic soon, will jump at the chance to pick up this company right now, like in the next 3 months!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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