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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

  • d1synergeticpsi d1synergeticpsi Feb 24, 2012 5:43 PM Flag

    I need info from bulls and bears please

    I have followed this stock from a distance for a few years. I haven't been long or short as of yet. I tried to short it at the $100 or so level, but at the time no shares were available. So I left it alone until now. I see that it has been getting hammered for the last year or so. I would love to here any legit bull or bear cases. It seems from the research I've done so far that they have been burning cash and that the stock was mainly held up by meanigless takeover chatter.

    There is not too many analysts that are completely bearish from what I see. The Mean target is $43.55 and the Median target is $38.00 The book value looks to be $46.61, cash per share $8.83 and debt to capital ratio around 14to 15% depending on where I got the info from. The P/E seems to be rediculously low, and it seems like they just got over a major hurdle in one of their contracts in Mojave. There is also a huge short intrest, which smells like a short squeeze if earnings are decent. Please tell me what I am missing or need to know before taking on a position. Your input would be greatly appreciated.

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    • I suggest you watch a video on naked shorts.

      Shorting shares that do not even exist which after more and more clog the system, to push up a stock and get it to hold the advance is near impossible.Especially since the naked shorting is not always done to put a company out of business but many times it is. Sometimes it is just intended to get other longs to sell so they can pick up shares and pick them up cheaper then they would be able to without cheating.

      Now my prediction for you from someone that has watched fslr for the entire time its traded. I have made a bundle in a few solars, lost alot in jaso eslr garbage. Anyways tuesday when fslr earnings are not hot at all but an reason from them about how they have much more billing in the next quarter or two etc. It will go down to 28 in a hurry, at which point that will break and 26 will be the new low for 3 weeks or so. If 26 breaks 24 will hold.

      Now when this happens Sunpower will go back to 5 or 6 as they are losing money and already reported that fact.

      Now one thing that concerns me and that is that the market is getting so toppy, MA V AAPL GOOG PCLN, priceline really?

      That if a major correction which is overdue say for example dow down 180, naz down 100 or 120 then all bets are off, or oil drops ten or 15 dollars, then solar becomes much more dangerous and hold at your own risk. If smart money wants fslr, they will buy wed for 6 or 7 dollars cheaper.Maybe 9 or 10 if earnings real bad, high write downs like in the past etc.

      • 2 Replies to gruen7
      • lol...good luck trying to cover shorty...i bought in big friday, you seem desperate, and you will be when this thing spikes back to 45 if not, could you be more transparent ?

      • d1synerget... There are a lot of solar investors who invest based on that fact they like solar...period. So take a look at the exact opposite, say fossil fuels and compare. One can wish and hope for solar, even put panels on his or her home or business like I just did, but invest? Panels are getting much cheaper to buy which is good for me putting them on my coffee shop, but I would hate to be a manufacturer. (for the record, the monthly cost on the 10-year note for the panels is less than the monthly savings, so they were free)

        So lets look at Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) vs FSLR last six months. Don't forget, KMP also offers a huge dividend and always has. Now over 5% even after the huge runup.

    • I am short. Closed one from 79 to 32 and now am in at 41.85.

      What you have here is a classic value trap. This company built its business on a model totally dependnet on govt money...and that spring is gone. The entire solar sector is now a commodity and the price of poly will continue to drop. china owns that business and they will continue to drop it. solar has met its match with the advent of Nat Gas. The Dems in congress will do everything they can to stop Nat Gas because they never counted on it when the entire "block oil and subsidize green" scheme was hatched.

      FSLR can not compete on any level in a true market. Their utility build out is the only reason they are not broke now. they expect to make 3.50 this year-all of it is a result of the remainig govt cheese projects to build. Nothing is from stand alone business. the former is ending......Congress will never approve another Solyndra or the other 6 solar companies who got money who are now gone. Look at the volume in this thing since it topped @49..........the hype of Obama's speech has met reality....he will too as well. All of these solar companies will end up as part of some energy, or industrial is the only way the industry survives in a public way.

    • Stay away.
      This puppy is a day traders dream. You have got to be fast. You have to be experienced. They're a lot of better stocks out there for an investor such as yourself.
      I just covered a short and bought a small amount for a Monday pop. I will add or sell depending how we look Monday. With being recently pounded down and an earnings date announced I see a good chance of a strong pop but I am cautious.

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