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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

  • aliceandvince aliceandvince May 19, 2012 3:33 PM Flag

    FSLR Bottom Here Somewhere

    I have been a market participant for over 30 years and have found that a situation like fslr is never easy to pick an entry point. I think fslr is fair valued in the 30 to 40 range based on the prospects of the future projects, Dubai announcement and general favorable slow economic growth that will continue to support green energy as a way to create jobs that will have a long lasting effect on the energy front of the US and the world. I bought at 30, 20 and now a lot at 14.75. The problem is you have huge investors seeing losses from their earlier entry points and willing to take the loss just to pare exposure. This continues to push the stock below the "real" value. But this will end at some point. Maybe at 13.66, or 12 or 10. But the point of the matter is, it will end due to the price being just rediculously low compared to its intrinsic value of the pipeline projects, antidumping order and prospects in Dubai as well as the rest of the emerging markets (where electricity is much more expensive than the us - ie. Brazil). I went "all in" last week due to the anti-dumping order. I work in the polyester industry and deal with anti-dumping orders a lot in my job. It will indeed upset the apple cart favorably for fslr. The shorts should start worrying.

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    • WOW!! What a run this has been 14.75 to 27 since May. I am beginning to fell like the flip image of Gordon Johnson to the long side. Nearly 100% gain in 6 months!!

    • FSLR today broke all resistance, made a new all time low and did it on volume that increased by over 50% of normal.

      The good news is that FSLR is right on the cusp of the $12.60 weak near term support and may stabilize and start base building at the $12.60-$13.10 zone.

      The Bad news is that there is NO support below. NONE.

      Tomorrow's near term support is $11.40 - $11.60 zone

      I do not expect FSLR to be at the bottom currently, but the market will tell that story and do that in the near term (next 6 trading days).

      Will FSLR base here at the $12.60-$13.10 zone?

      Will FSLR test $10.00?

      Exciting stuff!

      I would wait in cash for the outcome of this. I still feel that FSLR will most likely put a long term bottom in place at the $7.00-$10.00 zone.

      One last thought is will FSLR's current technology out perform other solar companies technologies? Is FSLR's management up to the tasks ahead? Interesting questions.

      The last three trading days have left FSLR over sold and a near term basing could be in the cards. Today's new all time low is negative.

      05/31/2012 13.37 13.40 12.19 12.56 -0.84 -6.27% 9,159,330

      05/30/2012 13.95 13.97 13.37 13.40 -0.83 -5.83% 3,381,300

      05/29/2012 14.23 14.70 14.08 14.23 -0.10 -0.70% 3,643,500


    • The past three days have been testing support. Today FSLR has made a new all time low @ $12.19. Major support is still at the $12.60-$12.90 zone so today's action is very weak and FSLR may rally to that support for today. There is still 3 hours of market trading left today before the close.

      The problem again is on raising volume FSLR has made a new all time low. This is not a buying opportunity. This is not a selling climax. This is more of the same old FSLR action and most likely a prelude to a test of the $10 zone.

      05/31/2012 13.37 13.40 12.19 12.38 -1.02 -7.61% 3,633,199

      05/30/2012 13.95 13.97 13.37 13.40 -0.83 -5.83% 3,381,300

      05/29/2012 14.23 14.70 14.08 14.23 -0.10 -0.70% 3,643,500

      FSLR needs some good news.


    • Hi aliceandvin;

      I gave your very poor post 1 star.

      Project earnings will increase and become a major profit stream, so they are not worthless.

      There is $7+ a share in cash on the balance sheets. There is no shortage of cash. Cash is worth that $7.00+.

      Next year will see FSLR in a upturn stock price wise. The current question is where will FSLR bottom.

      05/22/2012 13.84 13.93 13.21 13.60 -0.23 -1.66% 5,475,100

      05/21/2012 13.70 14.20 13.37 13.83 +0.17 +1.24% 4,875,100

      New all time low today at $13.21


    • Major Support FSLR @ $12.60-$12.80 zone was not tested Monday or Tuesday. There was a new all time low put in place @ $13.21. Oddly enough since major support was not tested Monday or Tuesday the bottom Bollingers are rising so then major support rises to $12.70-$12.90 zone for Wednesday. Bottom support could be tested soon, but is rising and that is the very first bit of semi bullish technical news that FSLR has had in a while.

      05/22/2012 13.84 13.93 13.21 13.60 -0.23 -1.66% 5,475,100

      05/21/2012 13.70 14.20 13.37 13.83 +0.17 +1.24% 4,875,100

      The longer it takes FSLR to test the bottom Bollingers the stronger the chart becomes. Is FSLR looking for a support zone and a possible basing?

      This would be very early in the process. My take remains that FSLR will test the $7.00-$10.00 zone before putting in a long term bottom. I hope to keep an open mind.

      The general market should bottom in the September-November zone.


    • Yes I am short, though I took some off the table earlier today. Half of the June 17 puts I bought for 2.21 were sold for 3.85 today. I made 78% on them in 3 weeks. That's the benefit of taking something off the table when you are up. Right now I cannot lose money on my puts(I have a free trade) and my cost basis for my short shares is 25.88. I seriously doubt I will be in the red this week. But If I am, congratulations to the longs, and I will cap my losses and move on. GLTY

    • But you are short now. So lets check back in a couple weeks and see how we are doing...

    • Its called ZERO afer BK.

      This goose is cooked. For all the poor souls who followed it into the dumpster call the lawyers suing the company. The management has known about the degradation issues since well before it went public. Other thin film companies never succeeded because they had enough integrity not to fleece the stock buying morons. They all knew yet FS kept running tests until they found results that supported the solar thin film lie.

    • Actually in a year I could be a long on FSLR. After it hits bottom and is no longer a good short, it will become dead money or a buying opportunity. I have played both sides of some stocks-X and CHK being 2 that come to mind. So the likelihood of me being a short on FSLR is really not that big a year from now.

    • I believe your original question was regarding if FSLR was worth the risk of only getting a few more dollars on the downside. It is. And I don't want a beachfront mansion because I get sunburned/skin cancer easily. I just went over the 800% mark on this stock in 3 months of investing in it. Sorry I upset you.

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