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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 5, 2013 3:22 PM Flag

    Chart Update

    For those of you that may still be holding long positions in FSLR:

    This rally was highly probable as a retest of the break of the 50-day MA was likely to be seen. The stock got back up to that line today with the rally a few minutes ago to 30.55. The line is presently at 30.20.

    Nonetheless, you also saw a lot of selling come in on that rally. The stock popped up from 29.24 to 30.55 in less than 20 minutes and dropped right back down to 29.24 in the next 90 minutes. That is a lot of selling.

    I did mention last week that I did think the probabilities favored the stock moving up to test that line before the drop down to the 25.70 level occurs. So far, the first part of that prediction has come true. Now, it needs to be seen if the drop down to 25.70 will occur. I think it will, and I do plan to be a buyer there.

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    • Interesting.

      IMO, I believe the current price action this week will continue north until it touches the upper bollanger band at about 33 (especially if SPWR reports a decent report tomorrow). After 33, I don't know. Higher, and I am wishing. Lower, and I am speculating. A small pullback or period of consolidation both seem a good guess once it hits 33.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Hey Lucky as Mr Chart, where are you now with your predictions ?
      Yes Sir, 2 weeks from here we are at 41, trust me.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • You and your predictions ... ha, ha, ha. What a joke and writing long stories ...

      Sentiment: Buy

    • i think we can put the 25.70 to bed

    • You and your predictions are funny! Last tiem you came up with the Eliot Wave theory and said:
      ...the Eliot Wave theory does suggest that the index will not rally much more above Friday’s high, certainly not above 13984, as that would make this top to top rally higher than the last one. ...
      and yesterday it broke the 14000 !!! You can write a lot of bla, bla, bla for children.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to kgolesorkhi
      • Look, no one has ever stated that things work 100% of the time. All I am looking for is an "edge". It is also the reason why I use diversification, 4-1 risk/reward ratios, and pinpointed entry points that are based on support/resistance levels.

        The idea is to make more money than I lose.

        As far as the Eliot Wave theory is concerned, the theory itself is NOT based on lower high to high tops but on waves. I researched the top to top situation and it did work for 5 days, until the economic reports came out bullish. News trumps charts every time. Nonetheless, waves are waves and they are very repetitive and constant.

        As far as the comment regarding 25.70 being put to bed, the charts do not suggest that is out of the question. This bounce up to 31.64 has not accomplished anything yet. The rally has not gone above a previous rally high and until that happens the stock is still in a "short-term (2-4 weeks)" downtrend. For that short-term downtrend to be broken the stock would need to get above 31.99, which is the previous rally high.

        As such, I am not ready to buy back into FSLR.

        I still believe the indexes are going to go into a decent to perhaps strong "seasonal" correction and I believe it will start next week. Though FSLR is not overly sensitive to the indexes, if the indexes do drop FSLR will feel some effect from it.

        For now, I am out of the stock and waiting for more chart indication of what the stock will do from here. The action seen is just trading within a trading range that means little. By the same token, the rally back above $30 does show that there is still strong interest in the long side of the stock, which means that a drop back down to $26 will likely be bought aggressively should it happen.

    • your messages are very informative. Is it possible to talk to you via email.

    • Oh man, another clown who doesn't look at the sector and only FSLR. This is like stealing candy from a baby.

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