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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

  • aliceandvince aliceandvince Feb 28, 2013 5:39 PM Flag

    My take on Earnings

    I have been an avid long for fslr since $14/share. Got out at $27.50 mostly before it continued to $36. I always get out a little soon... But as I posted here many times, the old contracts were at great margins. A month or so ago I guessed we would see some pressure on margins in 2013 and even worse in 2014. My guess was $3.60/share in profit in 2013. I know I was on the lower end of estimates but not by more than $.50. This was before the earnings report and conf call. Now I am more in the camp of $2.75 to $3.25 range. I was suprised not full year guidance was given. This tells me the margin compression is coming faster than FSLR wants to admit. With that knowledge, I am afraid we are going to be on a down trend to below $20/share in the next weeks and months. I knew this would happen, I just didn't think it would be 2nd half of 2013 so hard (my guess from what they alluded to in the conference call). I am 100% out of the stock and I don't short stock, so I will not probably post much more on this board after tonight. It was a nice run from $14 to $27 (and even better for those who got out at $30+), but I don't see tremendous upside for some time with FSLR at this point due to the mix shift that will be happening over the next year or so. Maybe I will see some of you over on the HLF board. Take care. I think shorts will have some room to run here for the time being. Later dudes.

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    • In at 14 and out at 27? You were rabid with your golden cross crappola in November when FSLR was at 27 and going to shoot to the moon(I remember on a Friday you insisting it would be 30 on Monday, maybe 32, when it went down). You were giving lectures on your beloved golden cross, speaking to the board like you were our teacher-AND YOU DIDN"T HAVE ANY SKIN IN THE GAME! What a chickenshit.

    • Jeezus CHRIIIIIISTTTT ! It almost looks like I could have written that post. This what I have been saying for months and YOU were the one of the main ones calling me an idiot - and now you are parroting me ? Oh well, I guess imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

      "But as I posted here many times, the old contracts were at great margins. " I don't recall you ever saying that, but I do recall you calling me every name in the book for saying that. Wow - well, at least I give you props for changing your mind in light of a review of the facts.

    • Good analysis, but most of the solars losing $tens-of-millions and projecting this loss just in the last 4 months increased by 2x to 3x. So even if FSLR was losing $tens-of-millions it could still double in stock price.
      FSLR is the only solar making any big profits probably $3 to $4/share for 2013. That is worth a price in the $30s and even $40 imo. Look if solars projecting & actually losing million & millions can go up 3x -- surely FSLR making real profits with almost no debt can go up 2x.

      • 2 Replies to mdbcolorado1
      • You may be correct, but I like when things are a slam dunk. So many institutions were dumping FSLR last year that is drove the stock down to levels that were too low to pass up based on the next 12 months earnings. And good earnings locked in with old contracts. Those contracts are now unwinding and the effects will not be pretty comparatively going forward for the next 12 to 18 months.

      • "So even if FSLR was losing $tens-of-millions it could still double in stock price." Duuuude STOP ! Take a step back and re-read what you just wrote. Here is the simple - boiled to simplicity - bottom line. You can argue what you think FSLR should be worth today, but in the end FSLR's price is currently $26. That is what the market values it at, period. Now. if FSLR earned $4.xx in 2012 and makes $3.xxx in 2013 there is no way the stock goes up on lower annual earnings. YOu may think it should be valued higher - but that's just the way it is.

 
FSLR
55.84-1.18(-2.07%)Apr 29 3:59 PMEDT