I dont think you will be hearing anything new at the Conference next week.
The conference call in March will update all programs.
Mid-Late May should have primary phase 3 results.
I suspect we will settle into a trading range until late April as interest in phase 3 results begins to heat up.
Who the heck knows? The folks sitting here that bought $1-$4 are hoping not. I'd say you would be safe to buy a bite (small amount) of it now in case the conference slips out some more pos data. In between that and the phase III results in May, I think we are on our own. Only other thing could be a gobble up by a big pharma. The CEO seems to be a sharp cookie bringing this company to this level.
Certain statements in here may be considered "forward looking"......... ;0)
Exciting indeed. If all comes up roses with Elesclomol, the financial benefits could be very exciting.
Here's a snip from Synta's website (press release dated 12/12/08)regarding commercial happenings and future payments from GSK:
"Under the terms of the collaborative agreement with GSK, Synta is eligible for a total of $585 million in pre-commercial milestone payments. These miletsones are related to operational progress, clinical progress, or regulatory filings and outcomes in melanoma and other cancer indications:
-- $145 million in melanoma-related operational and regulatory milestones,
o $25 million for milestones achieved and announced previously;
o $10 million for milestones achieved and announced today;
o $10 million for additional milestones expected prior to completion of
o $25 million upon meeting the primary endpoint or agreement to file for
regulatory approval; and
o $75 million in potential milestone payments for melanoma regulatory
filings and approvals.
-- $440 million in milestone payments for clinical and regulatory progress
in other cancer indications, including;
o $5 million in milestones announced today.
In addition to the above pre-commercial milestone payments, Synta is eligible for $300 million in sales milestones, 40-50% share of operating profits in the United States, and double-digit royalties on sales outside the United States. Synta has earned a total of $120 million in payments from GSK to date, including the $80 million up front payment in 2007 and the $40 million to date in 2008. "
So $80MM received so far from GSK, and another $65MM due after successful filing (likely by the end of this year), and significant percentage of sales thereafter, plus more payments for other indications.
Good luck to patients who need this therapy and to investors who put money into this venture.
Indeed, if all comes up roses. I would urge caution.
Top line data for the phase III Symmetry trial is expected soon, but there is some caution amongst analysts. The BOA analyst weighed in negative with this:
"Metastatic melanoma is an extraordinarily difficult indication," Ho said in a note to investors. "The currently approved treatments are extremely ineffective, and numerous investigational agents have failed in the clinic. With the data available, we have no reason to suspect elesclomol will have a different outcome."