I am as long on MNKD, as I am on SNTA. Either company could become a 60-bagger or more.
MNKD's lead product, Afrezza, is a FAR safer and FAR more user-friendly product (it's inhaled rather than injected) for diabetes than any other product on the market, all of which have serious flaws.
I see MNKD as an 800 million pound gorilla, since there are 400 million diabetics in the world and at least that number of pre-diabetics, all of whom could benefit from Afrezza.
Afrezza's PDUFA date will be in approx. 2 years.
Here's what I posted to the MNKD board on 10/23:
"Here are my mental back-of-envelope calculations:
1. $2,000 = Total Revenue (including partner(s)' share) per patient per year. (This is from a recent presentation where Al stated that the Danbury facility, I believe, is ready for 2,000,000 patients which equates to $4 billion/year. (This is my best recollection ... can anybody confirm or deny?)
2. MNKD's net profit per patient per year = 20% to 25% of this amount, or $400-$500, after deducting expenses, partner(s)' share, and, eventually, income taxes.
3. Number of patients ~ 10,000,000. This is of course a guess, but may be a conservative one considering the 400 million diabetics worldwide, 400 million pre-diabetics worldwide, and a survey indiating that 95% of docs would prescribe Afrezza.
4. P/E ratio = 8.
The product of 2,3 & 4 ia $36 billion, which would make MNKD a 90-bagger. If there's dilution, that would bring it down to a 60 to 80 bagger. This ignores the debt but also ignores MNKD's other products, growth in the number of diabetics, and inflation."
for those of you who are motivated by insider buys you might want to check out all the purchases made in the last 2 yrs in zgnx.not a rec. to buy, you need to make your own decision, but they caught my eye.
I have difficulty understanding the science in biotech so I try to follow those that specialize in it such as insiders and institutional investors that specialize in biotech such as baker brothers, QVT Financial, and Orbimed. However, they have the advantage of not having to reprot the 13F for 45 days and they somtimes get to buy a stock at a discount that we are not offered (QVT buying VVUS at a large discount back in aug/sep 2011). So I try to use the Form 4's to help buy/hold a biotech stock.