You have no quantitative basis for your options purchase? Must be nice to have so much money that you treat your investments like picking a roulette number.
I only make an options purchase if I feel confident over making at least a five bagger. There's no Synta options purchase now that I feel that way about. Good news is priced in; strikingly bad news at this juncture is unlikely. Just a continued slow bleed lower...hardly the stuff of options riches.
I don't see the purpose of a price target before any results are released. You have the distinction of making money shorting snta when I was skeptical of that trade. If you were to go long or short using option with snta...which would be the ideal options to purchase? It appears others here are just long the stock.
That depends on what you mean by fails.
If Ganetespib + Doc as compared to historical controls
1) does worse in all patients
2) has no effect in all patients
3) shows efficacy only in a sub-group or groups but is detrimental to patients outside that group. Whether or not that efficacy meets the primary endpoint impacts this scenario. The size of this sub-group(s) represents a very small percentage of NSCLC patients.
4) shows efficacy only in a sub-group and is neutral to patients outside that group. Whether or not that efficacy meets the primary endpoint impacts this scenario. The size of this sub-group(s) represents a very small percentage of NSCLC patients.
One can argue all of these would be failures but how they impact SNTA would vary significantly. Of course there are other negative scenarios as well as a number of very positive ones.
Hail I Nov 2.5 calls and Aug 2.5 puts...sort of like a straddle...but a huge move is needed.
Dr vin...honestly I do not how positive or negative each scenario..it appears that you know the science better than me...how confident with what you already know from the results released from earlier trials to be positive and do you believe it is a positive with the delay in results that may imply people are living longer with gpib?
Syen, I am long snta but I also bought an "expensive" insurance policy purchasing Aug 2.5 Puts just in case. However, that means they will only protect my long from not losing more than 50%. It gives me some peace of mind.
Are you guys hedging your long in anyway?
Hail, I am not trying to trick you...the reason I ask was because I bought expensive options and I don't remember anyone mentioning that they bought puts.