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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. (SNTA) Message Board

  • efficient_frontier2002 efficient_frontier2002 Sep 11, 2012 10:19 AM Flag

    Bullish on SNTA

    Here are my reasons ...

    1. GALAXY’s interim results include ...
    a. Significantly higher PFS’s

    b. An extremely encouraging preliminary all adeno overall survival (OS) chart (Slide 27 of the Sept. presentation). It looks like the median OS will double to 15 months or so … maybe more!

    c. No safety issues

    2. The fact that in the Sept.presentation, data showing the excellent 2-5x to 3x improvement in PFS’s for high LDH and mutant KRAS has disappeared! This, combined with Dr. Bahcall’s and George Farmer’s emphasizing in recent presentations the remarkable interim OS results for all adeno (Slide 27), and that the OS results are so much better than the PFS results for all adeno, and why (Slides 28-31—“Ganetespib is changing the biology of tumors” !!!), lead me to conclude the following:

    a. The OS results continue to be excellent.

    b. SNTA will therefore be swinging for the fences by testing all adeno in the Phase III trial.


    3. SNTA owns all worldwide rights to ganetespib.

    4. If SNTA can get 10% of this 600,000 patient market, and sell it at, say, $60,000 per patient, and have a 4x Sales market cap, then that takes us to $14.4B, a 28-bagger from today’s market cap of $0.5B. That’s just for one combination therapy for one type of cancer from its lead drug. (This would have to be reduced a little to the extent partners are involved, but that may only happen in Asia.)

    5. Lung Cancer is only the beginning. Over a dozen non-lung cancer trials (mostly IST’s) are in the works.

    6. Ganetespib’s monotherapy potential is also excellent (Slide 15).

    7. Elesclomol for low-LDH has excellent prospects, and it’s likely that SNTA’s huge ( 120,000) library of synthetic compounds does too.

    8 $70M in cash (6/30/12 pro forma), no debt, no warrants.

    9. Non-stop insider buying.

    Finally, the humanitarian reasons for investing in SNTA are obvious.

    Full disclosure: SNTA is my largest holding.

    P.S. Sorry about the lack of formatting ... this new Yahoo format is terrible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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SNTA
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