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Anyone who bothered to read the data critically, would find it odd that they buried the most meaningful piece of data behind lots of tables and numbers. Here's what matters:
"Progression free survival in the full data set was 2.8 months vs. 4.2 months (p=0.076) and overall response rate was 8% vs. 16% (p=0.078) for D vs. G+D, respectively."
So you get 1.4 month bump in survival, and only an 8% increase in response rate??? And everyone is jumping up and down? Those numbers are consistent with the data published a couple months ago that caused the major sell off. Also interesting, is how Synta appears to be backing away from targeting sub-populations which was supposed to be the big winner for HSP90, and instead they are now saying:
"Results for the primary endpoint subpopulations, while preliminary, suggest that ganetespib activity is broad-based, rather than restricted to one of these biomarker-defined subpopulations."
This also sounds like more of the same, let it run more tomorrow, and I'll be opening a short position along with Hail. I'd welcome someone to tell me how this data is any good, I just don't see it. To bad for those that bought the top today. I suspect the ride down will be just as fast.
what a #$%$ you are...say you want it to run more tomorrow...but say "too bad for those that bought the top today"...can't have it both ways...I bought at the close at 9.41...will sell tomorrow and make money
Let's review the record of tech_trader.
1) The guy repeatedly told us, perhaps ranting is a better term, that Ganetespib would get approved in 6 months. He made these absurd comments a few months ago, which BEFORE a single bit of interim data was revealed. His comments were as wrong as one could be.
2) After this very early data came out, SNTA dropped from over $8 to around $4.5. I along with some others sold off some of our SNTA at over $8. In contrast, tech_trader was still talking about FDA approval in 6 months right up until the early data came out. He reacted like a spurned lover, hurling ignorant and inaccurate negative comments about SNTA and the Ganetespib data. He kept urging that people to get out saying it would crater to $3 or less soon. The opposite happened and SNTA recovered. I was a bit slow and bought back all my shares at $6.50. If you listened to tech_trader, you lost put on the chance to make some money, or if you shorted, you just got killed.
3) He went into hiding as SNTA rose. Now with his backdrop of continually being wrong, he cries crocodile tears for someone who may have bought SNTA today at $9.41. Where were his tears for anyone who listened to him before and got crushed, or missed out buying SNTA at $4.50, $5 or even $6.50, or God-forbid, shorted SNTA at those low prices?
First, SYMMETRY went down precisely because there was no Phase 2b trial (which would have weeded out the high LDH patients).
GALAXY not only has a Phase 2b trial, but a wildly successful Phase 2b trial. It's wildly successful because (a) the all-adeno results are excellent in their own right and (b) it's revealed enormous Hazard Ratio disparities ( 6 mo. = 0.37 ... Smokers = 1.61 vs. no-smoke = 0.48 ... No liver or bone metastatis = 0.41 vs. liver or bone metastatis well over 1.00 I'm sure).
All 3 of these cuts of the data give p's = 0.023 or less for the low Hazard Ratio groups, i.e. they're statistically significant with room to spare. It only gets much better as these exclusions are combined and the number of patients tested (in Phase 3) goes up.
The key point is that Synta will be able to use this valuable information (along with not-yet-reported biomarker research) to design its Phase 3 trial. It's hard to see how it can fail.
You left out the overall survivor data (slides 20 & 31 of the ESMO presentation). Here is the 335 day (11 month) Kaplan-Meier survival data:
6mo since diagnosis 26% still alive 71% still alive
non-current-smokers 31% still alive 65% still alive
no liver/bone metastatis 17% still alive 71% still alive
In addition, the D+G curves have been flattenting, suggesting that the best is yet to come.
All 3 of these data cuts represent well over 50% of the total all-adeno population,
This data is absolutely stunning!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Techtrader, good to have you back.
I'm hoping they hype all the way to phase III which won't be completed until 2014. I figure by that time I would have a five bagger on my hands.
Of course, I'll be lightening up along the way, so I'll be just playing with house money.
Your short just might work out, however I'd keep a tight stop on it. I suspect some of the gains today were from short covering.