Looks like Synta is setting up for a repeat of that trial. Get everyone hyped up going into Phase 3, over promise and under deliver. Then watch the collapse. What's your short entry? I'm thinking we could ride this back down to $4 or so.
Given all the responses, many of you longs have implicitly acknowledged the concerns I've raised. I see that Motley Fool has done the same this morning. I'm simply not buying the spin on the data. There's a reason this tanked a couple months ago after the initial interim data. I have no idea why it recovered, and yesterday news was equally disappointing in my opinion. You could easily see a 8-12% pullback on any given day.
Nice job avoiding my summary of your horrid history. SNTA temporarily tanked after the initial interim Galaxy phase II data. The likely explanation was that the data was more immature than many people had hoped. You even had clueless people spouting non-sense such as off Ganetespib would be approved in 6 months, and this clueless persons said this BEFORE a single bit of phase II data was released. Does this ring a bell for you?
SNTA is up significantly, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some kind of a pullback. So what. You act like you are making Kreskin like comments with such a trivial and obvious statement. You also made a comment that the phase III data wouldn't be in until 2014, as if this were some kind of major negative so people should get out now. The reality is that there will be big events well before that. The first will be is if there is one more interim analysis. The second is when the phase II part of Galaxy is competed and the data released early in 2013. Then you always have the possibility of a partnership before or around that event.
Looking at ARQLs failure today just re-inforced a crucial lesson in biotech investing. Successful phase II data doesn't guarantee success in large phase III trials. One also makes the largest gains if you are holding stock before the final phase II data is released. If the final data is good, it is prudent to take money off the table. You can do so before the phase II data is finalized, and I did this with SNTA, but bought back at a lower price banking some profits. I may soon sell off a bit more but will DEFINITELY sell off some after the phase II data is completed. It is crazy, or better yet, greedy to have it all on the line for a phase III trial. Your wild swings have left you out in the cold.
Anyone who bothered to read the data critically, would find it odd that they buried the most meaningful piece of data behind lots of tables and numbers. Here's what matters:
"Progression free survival in the full data set was 2.8 months vs. 4.2 months (p=0.076) and overall response rate was 8% vs. 16% (p=0.078) for D vs. G+D, respectively."
So you get 1.4 month bump in survival, and only an 8% increase in response rate??? And everyone is jumping up and down? Those numbers are consistent with the data published a couple months ago that caused the major sell off. Also interesting, is how Synta appears to be backing away from targeting sub-populations which was supposed to be the big winner for HSP90, and instead they are now saying:
"Results for the primary endpoint subpopulations, while preliminary, suggest that ganetespib activity is broad-based, rather than restricted to one of these biomarker-defined subpopulations."
This also sounds like more of the same, let it run more tomorrow, and I'll be opening a short position along with Hail. I'd welcome someone to tell me how this data is any good, I just don't see it. To bad for those that bought the top today. I suspect the ride down will be just as fast.
You left out the overall survivor data (slides 20 & 31 of the ESMO presentation). Here is the 335 day (11 month) Kaplan-Meier survival data:
6mo since diagnosis 26% still alive 71% still alive
non-current-smokers 31% still alive 65% still alive
no liver/bone metastatis 17% still alive 71% still alive
In addition, the D+G curves have been flattenting, suggesting that the best is yet to come.
All 3 of these data cuts represent well over 50% of the total all-adeno population,
This data is absolutely stunning!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
First, SYMMETRY went down precisely because there was no Phase 2b trial (which would have weeded out the high LDH patients).
GALAXY not only has a Phase 2b trial, but a wildly successful Phase 2b trial. It's wildly successful because (a) the all-adeno results are excellent in their own right and (b) it's revealed enormous Hazard Ratio disparities ( 6 mo. = 0.37 ... Smokers = 1.61 vs. no-smoke = 0.48 ... No liver or bone metastatis = 0.41 vs. liver or bone metastatis well over 1.00 I'm sure).
All 3 of these cuts of the data give p's = 0.023 or less for the low Hazard Ratio groups, i.e. they're statistically significant with room to spare. It only gets much better as these exclusions are combined and the number of patients tested (in Phase 3) goes up.
The key point is that Synta will be able to use this valuable information (along with not-yet-reported biomarker research) to design its Phase 3 trial. It's hard to see how it can fail.
what a #$%$ you are...say you want it to run more tomorrow...but say "too bad for those that bought the top today"...can't have it both ways...I bought at the close at 9.41...will sell tomorrow and make money
Techtrader, good to have you back.
I'm hoping they hype all the way to phase III which won't be completed until 2014. I figure by that time I would have a five bagger on my hands.
Of course, I'll be lightening up along the way, so I'll be just playing with house money.
Your short just might work out, however I'd keep a tight stop on it. I suspect some of the gains today were from short covering.